As I was reading through the current recommended Bhutto assassination diary, and specifically its comments, I realized I had nothing intelligent to add to the discussion because I simply don't know enough about Pakistan. I also realized most commenters didn't know much either. So I went searching for an informed source who could bring clarity to this situation. Juan Cole never disappoints.
First, what we already know:
Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, has been assassinated at a rally held Thursday evening near Islamabad. She appears to have been shot by the assassin, who was wearing a suicide bomb belt, which he then detonated to make sure he had finished the job. The Bhuttos are sort of the Kennedys of Pakistan, marked by wealth, power and tragedy, and central to the country's politics for the past four decades.
Now, what we may not have known, and perhaps still don't:
The Pakistani authorities are blaming Muslim militants for the assassination. That is possible, but everyone in Pakistan remembers that it was the military intelligence, or Inter-Services Intelligence, that promoted Muslim militancy in the two decades before September 11 as a wedge against India in Afghanistan and Kashmir.
This is an important point. The line that separates the ISI and the Muslim militancy is blurred. Nothing is simple. Many groups and many motives. In other words, we will probably never know who was behind this assassination for certain. Regardless of what you hear on the teevee.
But here's the scary part. It doesn't matter what the truth is. Perceptions name the game here:
The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) faithful will almost certainly blame Pervez Musharraf, and sentiment here is more important than reality, whatever the reality may be. The PPP is one of two very large, long-standing grassroots political parties in Pakistan, and if its followers are radicalized by this event, it could lead to severe turmoil. Just a day before her assassination Benazir had pledged that the PPP would not allow the military to rig the upcoming January 8 parliamentary elections.
I can't really add anything to that statement except that some remote beach where they serve umbrella drinks is looking more and more appealing every day.
Now to the brilliant Bush foreign policy team and their proclivity to failure:
The NYT reported that US Secretary of State Condi Rice tried to fix Musharraf's subsequent dwindling legitimacy by arranging for Benazir to return to Pakistan to run for prime minister, with Musharraf agreeing to resign from the military and become a civilian president. When the supreme court seemed likely to interfere with his remaining president, he arrested the justices, dismissed them, and replaced them with more pliant jurists. This move threatened to scuttle the Rice Plan, since Benazir now faced the prospect of serving a dictator as his grand vizier, rather than being a proper prime minister.
With Benazir's assassination, the Rice Plan is in tatters and Bush administration policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan is tottering.
I had missed the Rice, Bhutto connection. So many crises, so little time. But if you were wondering how the Bush administration was involved, as they must be since it is a disaster, here it is. This, once again, illustrates the sheer hubris and incompetence of the Bush crowd.
Some will argue that Bush and Rice cannot be blamed for an assassin, especially when Ms. Bhutto appeared to act so recklessly regarding her own security measures.
But this view neglects the clear warnings that Bhutto's return would be pouring gasoline on a fire. Once again, Bush policy serves to inflame and divide. It's a pattern you see.
One more point about who was responsible. It is often wise to consider who appeared to have the most to gain from an event like this, and then figure out who that person or persons' enemies are. Because everybody knows how to play the frame game. Or maybe I'm just projecting American politics.
I just finished reading Woodward and Bernstein's 'All the President's Men' again. The Nixon Ratfucker's had a fun little thing going where they would robocall at 2:00 AM claiming to be from the Muskie camp asking for support. Of course, they didn't want to run against Muskie so they were effectively sabotaging his candidacy by pissing people off in New Hampshire. It worked and they got to run against McGovern.
We are seeing this kind of behavior in the Democratic and Republican primaries. I also see this as a likely possibility in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. On the surface, Syria was the likely suspect because Hariri was Syria's political opponent. But Syria may have had more to lose by his death than to gain.
I am not asserting that I know who was really behind the Hariri assassination. Just that you always have to watch for the frame game. As a device for gaining political power, it's as old as politics.
Here's the LINKto the rest of Juan Cole's post.
Update [2007-12-27 15:28:30 by TocqueDeville]:
The Frame Game, Or Just the Blame Game?
George Bush: The cowardly, murderous, extremists did it. Evidence? None.
Bhutto adviser Husain Haqqani: Musharraf did it. Evidence?
Haqqani notes that Bhutto died of a gunshot wound to the neck. "It's like a hit, not a regular suicide bombing," he says. "It's quite clear that someone who considers himself Pakistan's Godfather has a very different attitude toward human life than you and I do." (Source TPM Muckraker)
Nawaz Sharif, Bhutto's likely successor and chief Musharraf political enemy: Musharraf is "responsible". Evidence?
"Pervez Musharraf is responsible and accountable for what happened today," Sharif told a private news channel in an interview.
"I hold his policies responsible for landing this country into the terrible mess," a shaken Sharif said.
"Nobody has confidence in Musharraf. Everybody wants him to step down and hold the inquiry (into Benazir's death)," he said.
So Musharraf's policies did it. Ok.
This comment from Sharif should send chill's down State Dept. spines though (also from TPM Muchraker):
Sharif appears to have wasted little time taking up Bhutto's mantle and consolidating the non-Islamist opposition to Musharraf:
Sharif told Bhutto's supporters that he would fight "your war from now on", and that he shared the grief of "the entire nation".
Sharif was speaking outside the hospital where Bhutto died. "I assure you that I will fight your war from now," Sharif said.
This makes Sharif a good suspect in my cynical mind. But who knows at this point.