I was born in pakistan and have followed its politics closely in recent days.
Pakistani have tended to believe that since Muhammad Ali Jinnah founded Pakistan in 1947, that the country was destined to be. That it was by he will of God that an Islamic state be formed. But, In 1947, few who participated in its formation could have predicted the tumultuous events that followed thereafter.
In 60 short years, Pakistan has gone through military dictator after dictator who has imposed martial law and taken away the liberties and hopes from the pakistani citizenry. In between there have been ineffectual civilian leadership that has wasted the country's fortune and further impoverished its people.
To its credit, in the past 30 years, pakistan has been able to develop nuclear weapons, having had a strong impetus with an aggressive India poised at its border.
Now, Pakistan is at one of the great crossroads in its short history.
A crossroads that will not only impact its immediate and short term future, but also may impact the future of the region as well as the world.
UPDATE: Thank you for your condolences. I appreciate all your goodwil, and prayers for Pakistan. Pakistan needs it now more than ever.
Pakistan's beloved leader is dead, Benazir Bhutto.
A secular and populist leader with tremendous following, Bhutto inspired cross generationally a multitude of pakistani and gave hope to the moderate masses of pakistanis.
What is left in her wake:
- Bilawal Bhutto Zardari: 19 year old son of benazir and privileged son of the former prime minister. He is currently at Oxford and likely not be a major political figure in Pakistan for at the least 4-5 years if not more. Yet, he is the current heir to the people's party throne.
- Asif Zardari: BENAZIR'S controversial husband who has shown strength in theis trying time. But has a checkered past including being accused of embezzelment of billions of rupees. He used to be called Mr Ten Percent. for taking bribes for government favors.
Now Mr Zardari hardened after 8 grueling long years in prison and the death of his wife, appears steely eyed and in new political form.
While he strongly asserts that he is not a candidate for any office in the upcoming election, he is now cochairman of the pakistan peoples party as decreed by Benazir's will.
Will he be a major leader in the coming days and months.
Will he be able to overcome his past?
- Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Leader of the Muslim League Noon Party, he stands to gain ostensibly from Benazir's assassination. However, given the strong sympathy vote for the people's party, his pwn party may wind up gaining a smaller share of government than they otherwise would have had Benazir not died.
He is not at all suspected in any complicity against Benazir.
While they were not on the best of terms, Sharif having been the one to have put Mr Zardari behind bars, they seem to be on amiacable terms now, determined that iin partnership with the People's party, they can throw out Musharaaf's government.
- Musharraf: President of pakistan supported strongly by western interest. He is detested in his country by the masses and has lost more and more political ground in the wake of Benazir's assassinatin. People will likely blame him for his death as that is what Benazir has written before her death. He is unlikely to survive.
- The islamist parties: They remain on the fringe as they typically have in pakistani politics and are not likely to gain any traction any time soon.
6.General Ashraf Qayani: a man appointed by Musharraf and now army chief of staff, will he lead a revolt against musharraf or will he be part of the cadre of generals thrown out by people underneath him in the army.
The army's interests now continue to diverge from Musharraf's.
- Muslim League Kaaf: The party that is currently teamed with Musharraf and hiolds power in pakistan. It is likely to go down with Musharraf, but in the world of pakistani politics, with deal making , it is unpredictable where they will stand after musharraf leaves. It may depend on how he leaves power.
- The Nuclear weapons: the major hoopla about it getting into the hands of terrosits or islamic extremists is well overblown. there is more danger in the loose nuclear weapons arsenal in the former soviet states than there will likely ever be from the pakistani arsenal.
The real key to the future of stability in pakistan is a stable moderate government.
For sure, that is not President Musharraf. His boat is sinking and sinking fast.
The future while uncertain is certainly not without hope. The question is, will the West help or hinder in helping gain Pakistan's stability. It is doubtful tha ta laissez faire attitude will be taken any time soon given the immense national scurity interests of western players in pakistan.
George Bush is not known for making good decisions, and now we leave it to him, as the next 6-12 months will be some of the most important in pakistan's short history.