There are three states more crucial to presidential elections these days than any others. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are the 4th, 6th, and 7th most populous states, and they've also been highly contested in recent presidential elections. There's no reason to think 2008 will be any different.
Quinnipiac released primary and general election polls in these three states today. Hillary Clinton leads in each of the primaries, and she fares better than the other Dems in the matchup polls.
The polls were conducted from 11/26-12/3, and they each have a margin of error around 3% for the general election matchups and 4.5%-5.0% for the primaries.
Let's start with the primaries
Florida (4/22)
Clinton: 53%
Obama: 17%
Edwards: 7%
Biden: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Richardson: 1%
Don't know: 15%
Ohio (3/4)
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 19%
Edwards: 13%
Biden: 3%
Kucinich: 2%
Richardson: 1%
Dodd: 1%
Don't know: 13%
Pennsylvania (1/29)
Clinton: 43%
Obama: 15%
Edwards: 9%
Biden: 5%
Kucinich: 3%
Richardson: 2%
Dodd: 1%
Don't know: 13%
Yes, it's still early. Yes, Florida delegates probably won't count at the convention.
Here's how likely voters are to change their minds in each state:
Very likely: FL-6%, OH-11%, PA-10%
Somewhat likely: FL-38%, OH-34%, PA-40%
Not too likely: FL-17%, OH-21%, PA-21%
Not likely at all: FL-38%, OH-32%, PA-29%
Now onto the general election matchup polls:
Florida
Versus Giuliani
Clinton wins 48%-41%
Obama loses 45%-37%
Edwards loses 43%-39%
Only Clinton was matched up against the other Republicans, and she beats them all:
vs. McCain: 47%-40%
vs. Thompson: 52%-36%
vs. Romney: 50%-36%
vs. Huckabee: 50%-35%
Ohio
Versus Giuliani
Clinton wins 45%-41%
Obama wins 42%-38%
Edwards wins 45%-38%
Again, only Clinton was matched up against the other Republicans, and she beats them all:
vs. McCain: 44%-42%
vs. Thompson: 47%-38%
vs. Romney: 47%-37%
vs. Huckabee: 45%-38%
Survey USA also polled Ohio matchups yesterday. The results :
vs. Giuliani
Clinton wins 48%-44%
Obama loses 46%-43%
vs. Romney
Clinton wins 51%-41%
Obama wins 45%-42%
vs. Huckabee
Clinton wins 47%-45%
Obama loses 44%-41%
vs. McCain
Clinton loses 51%-43%
Obama loses 51%-40%
These results are very similar to Survey USA's 11/15 Ohio matchups.
Pennsylvania
Versus Giuliani
Clinton ties 44%-44%
Obama ties 41%-41%
Edwards loses 40%-44%
Only Clinton was matched up against the other Republicans, and she beats them all except for McCain--who she ties:
vs. McCain: 43%-43%
vs. Thompson: 49%-37%
vs. Romney: 49%-37%
vs. Huckabee: 48%-37%
These results are similar to the 11/8 Quinnipiac PA polls, in which Clinton beat every Republican while Obama and Edwards both trailed Giuliani (the only Republican they were matched against).
In one final poll I haven't seen mentioned today, PPP released a North Carolina primary poll (November PPP results in parentheses):
Clinton: 31% (30%)
Edwards: 26% (30%)
Obama: 24% (21%)