My hotel in DC has free wi-fi access, a true score. I don't know how much time I'll have to blog (probably not much), but I'll be able to get some words out.
CW is that Iowa is worth 5-10 points in NH. We're about to see the theory in action.
I've already talked about the new phenomenon of the pre-Iowa bounce, as fierce media activity surrounding the Iowa Caucauses reversed Kerry's NH decline and arrested Clark's assent. The trend is evident in today's ARG poll, and that's pre-Iowa results.
1/17-19 1/16-18 1/15-17 1/14-16
Dean 28 28 28 28
Kerry 20 19 19 18
Clark 19 20 20 22
Edwards 8 8 8 8
So given my theory of the pre-Iowa bounce, it's hard to find a baseline (except, perhaps, Kerry's low of 10 points). But for immediate sake, we'll use today as the baseline. We'll ignore the pre-Iowa bounce, and see what things look like over the next few days. Should be fascinating.
Also, we should consider every pre-Iowa poll as bunk until new, post-Iowa numbers come in. The field has been reset. Everything is brand new.