For a moment last night I was thinking that I would have to take a break from the blogs. Too much of a hothouse--too much of an echo chamber. And we are seeing it. People at Kos are going from Dean is God to maybe I'll check out that Edwards guy. Well, nobody likes a loser. So, for a moment I will take off my Dean fan hat and make some (hopefully) slightly more objective observations.
What happens next:
In New Hampshire
- If Kerry wins, Edwards is the nominee. Why? A Kerry win effectively knocks both Clark and Dean out of the race. However, I think a sizable proportion of Dean supporters and some Clark supporters (I am assuming that Kerry can only win by going negative on both of them) will be ticked off enough to look for another alternative, and only Edwards is available. Then Edwards goes into 2/3, which has some potentially strong states for him.
- If Dean wins, Dean is the nominee. Why? A Dean win knocks out Kerry and stops the bleeding. Dean goes into 2/3 strong in primaries where he's expected to perform poorly. A surprisingly strong showing on 2/3 sets him up well for contests where he is expected to do well, Washington, Michigan, California, New York. Also, to garner the win out of what is currently such a negative atmosphere, he will show that he has the "right stuff".
- If Clark wins, the race is suddenly really wide open. Thus, I'm making the prediction that the press will start pulling for Clark and propping him up in the next week, since the horse race is what they really want. If Clark wins, memes will start flying. "Kerry may be strong, but why couldn't he parlay his showing in Iowa into a win in NH, which is a neighboring state." "Dean couldn't win in a crowded field, but he's got great institutional strength down the line, and his detractors are now split. Is he imploding or can he pull something out?" "Clark could take it all the way, but he still hasn't really been tested" "Let's see what Edwards is going to do"
- Joe Lieberman drops out after NH. (Hope we can all agree on that one)
I know that I'm not the only one who's been disappointed with Dean in the last week. But hey, here's his chance to show what he's really made of. Incidentally, I saw a woman on the train wearing a Dean button (I see her every day, and this is the first I've seen of the button) and a guy on the street in a suspiciously bright orange hat. Remember--we are the echo chamber and sometimes I think we're as bad as the press. Elections are a snap shot of the electorate at a given moment and events on the ground often do not match events in our heads. Let's do what we have to and not get too excited just yet.