Its’ official, according to the polling firm Rasmussen Reports Barack Obama is currently the front-runner for the democratic nomination for president. Their latest weekly poll has Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead-heat. Even though Clinton is ahead 32% to 30% over Obama, he is well enough within the 4% margin of error used for this particular statistical survey to consider this a near-tie. At the same time, it’s notably to mention that Edwards supports has consistently remained at a solid 15% to 17% over the last couple of week which shows that his voter support is enthusiastic and has much room for intermediate growth.
Beyond a reasonable doubt, the democratic presidential primary race is predictably showing early signs that Clinton’s supposedly insurmountable campaign war-chest will not be able to buy a greater amount of votes for each dollar raised on the trail. For progressives and liberal grass-roots activists these are very positive signs because the nomination more than less will be decided by the quality of the candidate’s campaign (along with the size of the overall activist donor base) rather than the amount of money that is raised over a given period of time.
These clear trends we can see in both national polls and of those in early primary states shows is that there is not an apparent front-runner and there is statistically bunching occurring among the top three first-tier candidates. This indicates a couple important aspects in the race that should be noted which are, voters support for each of the first-tier candidates is more soft than initially believed, rank & files voters have equal interest in these candidates, and the percentage of undecided voters remains very high to this date. The challenge that remains for the candidates is to from both a personality and an issues standpoint to separate themselves from their opponents’ campaigns.
Over the next 3 to 6 months, we will see whether the Edwards or Obama campaigns will be able to demonstrably overtake Clinton’s campaign in both fundraising and voter support in the second presidential fundraising quarter for 2007. I predict that the Obama’s campaign will overtake Clinton’s campaign this month in the Rasmussen polling, but both his and Clinton’s support will start to bleed more support once the debates begin later this month. Most particularly Clinton’s male support will continue to dwindle to favor Obama or Edwards as well as a small amount of her female support.
In overall, as long as John Edwards continues to strongly compete in the fundraising battle he will be in perfect-position to overtake both Obama and Hillary for the nomination in future polling. In my opinion, Edwards will not establish himself as the clear front-runner until this fall when the candidates by then have participated in multiple candidates and America aggressively focuses on the issues at hand. (Also, this will account for the media becoming less interested in the Clinton/Obama personality cult).
Ultimately, this race is about the Iowa Caucus and the wildcard at hand which is the 15% rule. My theory is clear and simple if Hillary goes into the first caucus not as a clear front-runner, the anti-Hillary crowd in Iowa will want to intend to pick a clear favorite in order to prevent her from garnering the nomination. Therefore, if all 3 first-tier candidates remain highly competitive come next January the voters will want to give either Obama or Edwards a sizeable margin of victory over Hillary Clinton or else Clinton is seen as a the winner gaining the momentum needed to win it all. As a result, the supporters of those candidates that do not receive 15%, (Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Clinton??) will most likely in a unanimous manner support either Obama or Edwards. The odds are that Iowa favorite Edwards will significantly benefit from the 15% rule, and that he is the most electable candidate of the bunch. Remember 2004 and how that turned out, well there is a great chance 2008 will be a mirror image how that turned out on caucus day.
Results as of 144 pm EST (544 votes)
Clinton 4%
Biden 0%
Edwards 38%
Richardson 6%
Dodd 0%
Kucinich 1%
Obama 15%
Leaning Edwards 12%
Leaning Richardson 3%
Leaning Obama 7%
Leaning Clinton 0%
Leaning (Biden, Dodd, Kucinich) 0%
No clue 2%
Other 4%
First Tiers Combined with leaners (along with Richardson)
Clinton 4%
Edwards 50%
Richardson 9%
Obama 22%