Most Idaho observers suspected a Senate race was on Larry LaRocco's radar when he took on the unlikely race for lieutenant governor in '06, and those suspicions have borne out. LaRocco will announce his candidacy next week.
LaRocco, who served two terms in the House until he was unseated in the 1994 GOP wave, was the last Democrat to serve in the historically Republican state’s congressional delegation. . . . LaRocco aims to enter the race formally with an announcement next Wednesday. He is in Washington this week laying the groundwork for a bid, but he said he is not scheduled to meet with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). “I just want to get in there and get this moving and do everything I need to do to win the nomination and the support of the DSCC, and then eventually win the seat,” LaRocco said.
Idaho Democrats have praised LaRocco as one of the party’s leaders over the last few decades. He is expected to be the frontrunner in the state, which is not a top Democratic target.
“He brings a great deal of enthusiasm and experience,” said Richard Stallings, state party chairman and a former congressman who served alongside LaRocco from 1991-92. “He’s a great campaigner — probably the best campaigner we’ve had in this state in a long time.”
LaRocco has deep roots in the Idaho Democratic party, having worked and campaigned tirelessly for Senator Frank Church back in the day. It was an excellent beginning for a political career, and it's hard to underestimate the importance of that factor for long-time Idaho Dems. The Senator's widow, Bethine, is still the matriarch of the state party, and the goodwill and loyalty among Idaho Dems for the Church "team" runs incredibly deep. Not that Idaho hasn't moved forward in the quarter century since Church served, but it's a connection that will serve LaRocco well.
The challenge, of course, will be one familiar from 2006--resources and the low-tier ranking Idaho is going to get from the national party. We saw it in the 2006 ID-01 race, when Grant took 45% while being seriously outspent in the last quarter as the GOP and Club for Growth poured money into Sali's campaign. Getting the national party to take a race in Idaho seriously--and to commit resources there--is going to be a challenge. Unless Craig retires (still a very real possibility) it's unlikely to become a targetted race for the DSCC. LaRocco rightly assumes he's going to need to raise about $5 million (an astounding number for Idaho).
Craig does have some vulnerabilities. He's the past chair of the Veterans Affairs Committee and has thus far skated responsibility for the abuses and neglect of returning Iraq war vets, but his culpability in abdicating any oversight responsibility will be an issue. He's already got a wing-nut primary opponent, Robert Vasquez, who is running on the premise that Craig hasn't been draconian enough in his immigration policy preferences. And there are the persisent rumors about his homosexuality (and no, the Idaho Statesman "exposé" on Craig still hasn't seen the light of day), which Vasquez would probably not be too squeamish to bring up in a primary. Craig won't be beat in a primary, but he can be seriously damaged.
I should also note that this announcement sets up the next one: Larry Grant will take on Bill Sali in a rematch. Grant had also considered a Senate run, but deferred to LaRocco in the race. Says Grant,
he will run for that seat again “unless something extraordinary changes.”
“That’s where I’ve put my time and effort and energy, so that’s what makes sense for me this next time around,” Grant said. He added that LaRocco should be able to use his statewide experience and Washington contacts to his advantage.