New
EKOS poll.
Conservative: 36
Liberal 25
NDP: 21
Bloc Quebecois: 13
Green: 5
This would likely translate into a Conservative minority or even a narrow majority government. It is one of the lowest levels the Liberals have fallen to in the history of polling.
Guide to the parties in
very rough American terms:
Conservative: like the US Republicans
Liberals: like moderate US Democrats, Clintonite/DLC types.
NDP: left-wing Democrats, or pre-2000 US Greens
Bloc: also left-wing Democrats, but Quebec separatist.
Green: not really like the US Greens; fiscal conservatives but environmentally progressive.
Canada's Parliament is elected along British lines. Thus, regional numbers are more useful than national in predicting election winners.
Here is a list of regions, with each region's seats in the 308-seat parliament (155 seats needed for majority). The Territories, with 3 seats, are seldom polled.
British Columbia (36)
NDP: 37
Con: 29
Lib: 28
Green: 7
Alberta (28)
Con: 70
NDP: 15
Lib: 10
Green: 5
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28)
NDP: 37
Con: 35
Lib: 23
Green: 6
Ontario (106)
Con: 40
Lib: 33
NDP: 21
Green: 6
Quebec (75)
Bloc: 50
Con: 18
Lib: 15
NDP: 10
Atlantic (32)
Con: 43
Lib: 39
NDP: 17
No election has been called yet, the opposition parties are likely to wait until the full details of the sponsorship scandal have been revealed before they move in for the kill.
The Cons would win about 150-160 seats with these poll numbers, the Libs around 60, the NDP 30-40, and the Bloc 55-60.
The American wingnut right, blissfully unaware of and uninterested in Canadian domestic politics, would of course claim that a Con victory meant a repudiation of Canada's alleged "anti-Americanism", ignoring other polls showing that even most Con voters despise GW Bush and the Iraq war. The Cons are only doing better because they have worked hard to convince people they aren't American-style wingnuts.
The Liberal free fall is due largely to the sponsorship scandal. In Canada, ideology and party are not as firmly tied as they are in the US; it is common for people to demand a change in government after 10 years or so in office, regardless of its ideological leanings. Regionalist sentiments nearly always trump ideological ones, as well.