If you watch and listen closely, you'll see the press seems to be buying the notion that Dean will "inevitably" be our nominee.
This is no accident, and is likely the effect of a campaign PR effort, using the latest batch of Iowa and New Hampshire polls.
And it doesn't hurt that other candidates are singing the same tune:
Only seven weeks ago, after Clark and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman announced they weren't going to compete in Iowa, there was speculation that the contest would lose some of its significance. But today, thanks to the fact that Dean is pushing hard for a victory there, Iowa's importance has been ratcheted up. It's become a dogfight between Dean and Gephardt, who won the state in 1988 and now seems to practically reside there. "Howard's strategy is to knock me out in Iowa and knock Kerry out in New Hampshire," says Gephardt. "If that happens, it's over."
This talk of "inevitability" (and the press
is running with it) is important for two major reasons:
- Campaign fundraising
Campaign donations are akin to investments, and no one wants to dump money into a losing proposition. The race is far from over, but creating the public impression that it is can pay huge dividends to Dean's fundraising and cripple that of his opponents.
- Jumping on the bandwagon
Who wants to support a loser? No one. And while those of us around here have analyzed every candidate and have solid, informed, and educated reasons for supporting them, the vast majority of potential voters do not. They hear, "Dean is going to win", and they decide to go along.
It's the reason why Rove pushed the notion of Bush's inevitability so hard in 2000. And 2002. And 2003. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But it's a force to be reckoned with regardless.
I'm not arguing Dean is inevitable. He isn't. There are still far too many factors that could come to play. I do think Clark is the only viable opposition to Dean. Gephardt can theoretically make a game of it. No one else really has a shot.
But politics is seldom about reality. It's about playing the expectations game. It's about manipulating the media for maximum benefit. It's about altering perception, because perception is reality.
This new "Dean is inevitable" movement, if successful, will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And to be successful you need 1) a campaign able to effectively control the message, 2) a media willing to run with it, and 3) an inability by rival campaigns to counter the meme.