In the third of my lists about the House, I focus on vulnerable Republicans. These are the Republicans who either won with 55% or less or are in a district that Bush lost in 2004. Even with these fairly stringent criteria, there are a LOT of seats. We are going to have a GOOD YEAR.
We are going to ROCK
My first list was an attempt to identify Democrats who should be primaried.
My second list was about Democrats who merit and need our support.
More below the fold
AZ-01 Rick Renzi 51.8% over Ellen Simon 43.4%. Most of the rest went to a libertarian candidate. Renzi was first elected in 2002. This sprawling district (it's larger than Pennsylvania) gave Bush 54% over Kerry and 51% over Gore. Renzi does very well among the large Native American population (22% of the population) but was a strong supporter of the Iraq debacle, and plays fast and loose with things like the truth and the law. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: Racetracker: AZ-01
lists one confirmed challenger: Allan Afeldt, mayor of Winslow, and several other potential candidates.
CA-04 John Doolittle 49.9% over Charles Brown 45.4%, with most of the remainder going to a libertarian. This district, mostly suburbs of Sacramento, gave Bush 61% in 2004, and 59% in 2000. Doolittle used to win easily (over 60%) but, well, he's a crook with ties to Abramoff. He may also be too conservative, even for this district (Nat'l Journal gives him an 89%tile conservative score). [UPDATE} According to this diary by Skulnick, Doolittle is being primaried by Eric Egland, a former ally. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: Race tracker CA-04 notes that Charlie Brown is running again.
Update [2007-6-3 4:2:54 by plf515]: According to a post by James Risser he heard that CA-41 Jerry Lewis will not run due to criminal activities.....
Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: CA-41
also lists Lewis as doubtful, and notes that Tim Prince as a confirmed opponent, and several others as potential candidates.
CA-50 Brian Billbray 53.2% over Francine Busby 43.5%. Billbray replaced Duke Cunningham when he resigned to go to jail (hehe). But Billbray used to be a representative for CA-49. The 50th covers part of San Diego county, and gave 55% to Bush over Kerry. Billbray took money to promote Metabolife, which contains ephedra, which....well....kills people. He also might not actually live in the district. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]:CA-50 lists Michael Wray as a challenger and several others as potential.
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave 45.6% over Angie Paccione 43.1%, remainder to Eidness, of the Reform party, who has since become a Democrat, and intends to run in 2008. This is a Republican district, giving Bush 58% over Kerry and 57% over Gore. The 4th covers the high plains of eastern Colorado. Musgrave is among the most conservative members of the House, earning a 87%tile conservative rating from Nat'lJournal. Eidness would, if elected, be on the conservative end of the Democratic party, especially on economic issues, but that's better than this! Even as a third party candidate, he got several endorsements and 11% of the vote. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to CO-04
Musgrave might not run, and Paccione is running again.
CT-04 Chris Shays 50.9% over Diane Farrell 47.6%, remainder to a libertarian. Shays was first elected in 1987, and is the last remaining Republican in the CT delegation. This district, one of the wealthiest in the US (it's got Greenwich CT) but it gave Kerry 52% and Gore 53%. Shays is more liberal than some Democrats (only a 44%tile conservative score from Nat'lJournal). Farrell challenged in 2004, with very similar results. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to CT-04 Jim Hines is running for this seat.
DE-AL Michael Castle 57.2% over Dennis Spivack 38.8%, remainder to an independent and a Green. Although Castle won fairly easily, DE gave Kerry 53% and Gore 55%. Castle is on the liberal end of the Republican party (51%tile conservative score from Nat'l Journal) and has been in since 1992. His winning percentage keeps dropping - in 2002 he got 72% and in 2004 he got 69% - and he looks increasingly vulnerable, but he has no intention of retiring, although he's almost 70.
FL-08 Ric Keller 52.8% over Charlie Stuart 45.7%. The 8th includes Disney World and Orlando. It gave Bush 55% against Kerry and 54% against Gore. Keller, though, is to the right of the district (78%tile conservative rating). In the last 2 elections, he won easily. Maybe Stuart will run again? Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to FL-08 Corbett Kroehler is running for this seat.
FL-13 Vern Buchanan 50.1% over Christine Jennings 49.9%. This is Katherine Harris' old seat. It gave Bush 56% over Kerry and 55% over Gore. This race was nasty, and Buchanan seems to be a nasty Repub, and may have skirted the law with regard to taxes and loopholes.
Progressive Punch (so far) gives him a rating of 7 (that's out of 100, folks).
Update [2007-6-5 20:51:2 by plf515]: see this post
by skulnick for more on FL-13. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to FL-13
Michael LaFevers is running, and Jennings may run again.
ID-01 Bill Sali 49.9% over Larry Grant 44.8% and several others. Butch Otter retired to run for Governor. Bill Sali is a lunatic, even by Idaho Republican standards. This district, covering eastern and northern Idaho (the handle) gave Bush 69% against Kerry. Sali thinks abortion causes breast cancer. National Journal says he may be the most unpopular man elected this year. If the Republicans don't primary him out, he may be defeatable....Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to ID-01 Larry Grant may run again, and Rand Lewis is running.
IL-06 Peter Roskam 51.4% over Tammy Duckworth 48.6%. This is Henry Hyde's old seat, covering O'Hare airport and suburban Chicago. It gave Bush 53% against both Kerry and Gore. Roskam is a book-banning, war-loving, right-wing jerk. He's taken some unpopular local position re O'Hare, and may be beatable. But if Duckworth, who lost both legs in Iraq, can't do it....Will she run again?
IL-10 Mark Kirk 53.4% over Daniel Seals 46.6%. Then 10th, which covers the north shore, supported Kerry (53%) and Gore (51%) over Bush. Kirk, first elected in 2000, is considerable less conservative than most Republicans (Nat'l Journal conservative score of 51%tile), but, as Bush gets less and less popular, he may be take-able. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to IL-10
Seals has committed to running again.
IN-03 Mark Souder 54.3% over Tom Hayhurst 45.7%. This district, which covers the NE corner of IN, gave Bush huge margins (68% against Kerry, 66% against Gore). Souder, a conservative Republican first elected in 1994, typically wins easily. One reason he may have had a harder time in 2006 is that he had pledged to leave. Probably not vulnerable.
KY-04 Geoff Davis 51.7% over Ken Lucas 43.4%, remainder to a libertarian. Davis was first elected in 2004. The 4th, which covers the northernmost part of KY, gave Bush 63% against Kerry and 61% against Gore, but Lucas used to hold this seat. If the Republicans continue to be unpopular, he may take it again.
MI-07 Tim Wahlberg 49.9% over Sharon Renier, 46.0%, remainder to several candidates. Wahlberg defeated the former representative in a primary (yeah, it does happen!) The 7th has now had 3 different Republican reps since 2002. This district is far from Detroit, it includes Battle Creek, but excludes liberal Ann Arbor. It gave Bush 54% over Kerry, and 51% over Gore. Walberg is more conservative than Schwarz, and probably too conservative for the district - Walberg is a Club for Growth protege, and strongly anti-choice, who recently said that parts of Detroit are more dangerous than Iraq. Several Democrats are already interested: David Nacht, Sharon Renier again, and Jim Berryman. Kossack knowledge and opinions?
MI-09 Joe Knollenburg 51.6% over Nancy Skinner 46.2%. The 9th, covering wealthy Detroit suburbs, is the wealthiest district in MI, with median income of $65,000 +. It has sent Knollenberg to DC since 1992, and gave Bush narrow margins over Gore and Kerry (51% both times). Knollenberg hasn't had a close race in a while, usually winning with about 60%. But he's way to the right (Nat'lJrnl conservative score 76%tile) and should be vulnerable
MN-06 Michele Bachman 50.1% over Patty Wetterling 42.1%, reaminder to John Binkowski, of the same party that backed Jesse Ventura and Ross Perot. Bachman is a freshman, the former rep., Mark Kennedy, retired to run for Senate. This district, covering the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Twin Cities, gave Bush 57% against Kerry, but only 52% against Gore. Bachman is a favorite of James Dobson, she favors keeping the nuclear option on the table against Iran, wants to privatize social security, favors continuing the debacle in Iraq, and so on. Call for expertise: Where will Binkowski's supporters go?. MN-06 lists Robert Hill as a candidate
NE-02 Lee Terry 54.7% over Jim Esch 45.3%. The 2nd district is Omaha and suburbs. It gave Bush 60% over Kerry and 57% over Gore (does that make Omaha the most pro-Bush city?) Terry has won easily in the past - his closer race this time may be due to his violating his pledge about term limits. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NE-02 Esch is running again
NE-03 Adrian Smith 55.0% over Scott Kleeb 45%. This sprawling district (65,000 + sq. miles) covers most of Nebraska. It gave Bush over 70% against both Gore and Kerry, and, in 2004, gave former rep. Tom Osborne 87%. How did Kleeb get within 10 points?
NV-02 Dean Heller 50.4% over Jill Derby 44.9%, remainder to two independents. The 2nd is Reno and a whole lot of emptiness. It's the third biggest CD in the nation (after AK-AL and MT-AL) at 105,000+ sq. miles. It gave Bush 57% against both Gore and Kerry. The former rep., Gibbons, retired to run for Governor. I have not much information on this seat or race.
NV-03 Jon Porter 48.5% over Tessa Hafen 46.5%, remainder to 2 independents. The 3rd contains most of the suburbs of Las Vegas. It gave Bush a small win against Kerry, and Gore a small win against Bush and Porter is way to the right of the district, with a Nat'l Jnl 70%tile conservative rating. His races keep getting closer: 2002 56%, 2004 54%. Is next time the charm? Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NV-03 Barry Michaels is running and several others might run.
NJ-05 Scott Garrett 54.9% over Paul Aronsohn 43.8%. The 5th is the northern edge of NJ. It gave Bush 57% over Kerry and 54% over Gore. Garrett's Nat'l Jnl 57%tile conservative rating may be a misprint - some of his positions seem pretty far out: He's for offshore oil drilling (off the coast of NJ!), likes 'intelligent design', opposed safety locks on handguns, against additional aid to Katrina victims, and Progressive Punch gives him a 4.08 rating. Anyone up for running?
Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NJ-05 Camile Abate is running, and several others might
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson 49.4% against Linda Stender 47.9%. The 7th is a weirdly shaped district that looks like it was either a gerrymander mania or leftovers from other districts. It gave Bush 53% over Kerry and 49% over Gore. Ferguson is moderate, for a Republican (53%tile conservative rating), but he has ties to Tom DeLay, and that's not a good thing in this moderate district. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NJ-07 Stender is probably running again.
NM-01 Heather Wilson 50.2% over Patricia Madrid 49.8%. Doesn't get much closer than that. This district is Albuquerque and suburbs. Kerry beat Bush (51-48) and Gore beat Bush (48-47) and Wilson, first elected in 1998, has often won with less than a majority. She's far from the worst Republican - she has a Nat'l Journal conservative rating of 51%tile - but this district is always takeable. And now, there's an ethics question on her, about whether she inquired about another investigation - does a kossack have details? Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NM-01 Martin Heinrich is running, and Madrid and others might run.
NY-25 Jim Walsh 50.8% over Dan Maffel 49.2%. This district includes Syracuse and surrounding suburbs and exurbs. It gave Kerry a slight victory over Bush (50-48) and Gore a slightly larger one (51-45). King was first elected in 1988, and has an atypical career for a Repub. - he was a peace corps volunteer in Nepal, and a social worker. He's another moderate Republican (Nat'l Jrnl 53%tile conservative rating) but this district needs a Democrat! 2006 was his first really close race in a long time, maybe 2008 will be the turning point?
NY-26 Tom Reynolds 52.0% over Jack Davis 48.0%. This district, covering suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester. It is more conservative than NY-25 - it gave Bush 55% over Kerry and 51% over Gore - but its Reynolds is far to the right of the district - a 67%tile conservative rating. part of the reason he had a close race in 2006 may be his role in the Foley scandal. Reynolds was chairman of the RCCC, until the glorious 2006 election.
NY-29 Randy Kuhl 51.5% over Eric Massa 48.5%. The 29th covers the southern portion of the western part of NY (the Southern Tier). It's one of the most rural districts in NY. It gave Bush 56% and 53% against Kerry and Gore. Kuhl was first elected in 2004. He has a 67%tile conservative rating. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NY-29, Massa is running again.
NC-08 Robin Hayes 50.1% over Larry Kissell 49.9%. This district covers some of the Piedmont of NC, sort of the southwestern part of the state. It is often competitive in the House, although it gave Bush 54% against both Kerry and Gore. Hayes was first elected in 2004, and has never gotten over 55%. He's solidly conservative (71%tile) perhaps too conservative for the district. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to NC-08 Kissell is running again.
OH-01 Steve Chabot 52.3% over John Cranley 47.7%. The first covers most of Cincinatti, plus some suburbs - it is the southwestern tip of OH. It gave Bush 51% against Kerry and Gore. Chabot is moderately conservative (66.5%tile conservative). Cranley has run here before, will he do so again? Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to OH-01 Steven Dreihaus is running and Cranley might.
OH-02 Jean Schmidt 50.5% over Victoria Wulsin 49.5%. The 2nd covers a strip of OH to the south and east of Cincinatti. It gave Bush 64% against Kerry and 63% against Gore. But Schmidt is an obnoxious human being. Schmidt beat Paul Hackett in a special election here in 2005, after the former rep. resigned to join Bush's cabinet. Schmidt called John Murtha a 'coward', and seems to have lied about her education and her endorsements, and has said the Piketon OH would be a good place to store nuclear waste. Update [2007-6-3 4:2:54 by plf515]: Apparently, Wulsin is running again. See this diary by New Sweden.
OH-15 Deborah Pryce 50.2% over Mary Jo Kilroy 49.8%. The 15th covers most of Columbus, and its western suburbs. It gave Bush a very narrow margin over Kerry (2,000 votes of 300,000 cast) and a slightly larger one against Gore (54-44). Pryce, first elected in 1992, has connections with Abramoff and Ney. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to OH-15, Kilroy is running again.
PA-03 Phil English 53.6% over Steven Porter 42.1%, remainder to Conservative party. PA-03 is the far northwestern part of PA. It gave Bush 53% against Kerry and 51% against Gore. Phil English is a moderate Republican (58.5%tile conservative rating) who was first elected in 1994. His last few races have been easy wins, and he makes the criteria mostly because of the relatively strong showing by the conservative. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to PA-03 Porter is running again and Kyle Foust is also running
PA-06 Jim Gerlach 50.7% over Lois Murphy 49.3%. The 7th is in the southeastern corner of PA, and includes some of the wealthiest areas of the state. It gave Kerry and Gore small margins (51-48 for Kerry, a thousand votes for Gore). Gerlach is a moderate Republican (51%tile conservative rating), but this district tends Democratic, and Gerlach (first elected in 2002) had narrow wins in 2002 and 2004. Who's going to run in 2008?
PA-15 Charlie Dent 53.6% against Charles Dertinger 43.5%, remainder to the Green party. The 15th includes Allentown and Bethlehem, formerly steel towns, but now mostly small businesses. It gave Kerry and Gore very narrow margins (a few hundred votes for Kerry and a couple thousand for Gore). Dent was first elected in 2004. He, like the Repubs just above, is also fairly moderate....he's pro-choice, and endorses the Iraq study group recommendations, for instance. He won much more easily in 2004.
Update [2007-6-7 13:38:19 by plf515]: TX-10 Michael McCaul 55.3% against Ted Ankrum 40.4%. This doesn't meet the criteria, but it almost does, and it now has a good candidate for 2008, Dan Grant, who has written this diary
VA-02 Thelma Drake 51.3% over Phil Kellam 48.5%. The 2nd covers Virginia Beach and part of Norfolk. The district gave Bush 58% over Kerry and 55% over Gore. Drake is quite conservative (she says her life taught her that no one should rely on anyone) and has a conservative rating of 79.2%tile. She was appointed to be the Republican nominee when the former rep. resigned when someone alleged that he was homosexual. She won more easily in 2004.
WA-08 Dave Reichert 51.5% over Darcy Burner 48.5%. The eighth covers the eastern part of Seattle and suburbs. It went for Kerry 51-48 and Gore 49-47. Reichert is on the moderate end of the Republican party (conservative rating of 53%tile) and was first elected in 2004 in another tight race. Update [2007-6-10 12:28:47 by plf515]: According to WA-08 Burner is running again.
Update [2007-6-5 20:16:27 by plf515]: WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito See this diary State Senator John Unger is running. The second covers a horizontal strip across the middle of the state. Bush won 57-42 over Kerry and 54-44 over Gore. Capito's conservative rating is 68
WY-AL Barbara Cubin 48.3% over Gary Trauner 47.8%. remainder to a libertarian. Wyoming went for Bush in a big way: 69% against both Gore and Kerry. Cubin, first elected in 1994, is very conservative (85%tile conservative rating). So, what happenned? Welll....... Cubbin told the libertarian candidate that if "you weren't in a wheelchair, I'd slap you across the face" (note to politicians - don't threaten to hit people in wheelchairs). She took money from Tom DeLay, who is a crook (note to politicians - if you roll in muck, you get stinky).