According to a new poll released earlier today in the important swing state of Pennsylvania
Former Vice President Al Gore, who has not declared his candidacy for the 2008 presidential nomination, runs better in Pennsylvania than any Democrat against the Republican front runner, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani: Gore has 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
"Giuliani still would beat Clinton or Obama head to head, but when he's up against Gore, the former Vice President has an insignificant one point lead, but a lead nonetheless. The two were tied a month ago."
"While it's still Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani at the top of the presidential race, Vice President Gore is getting stronger" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The complete poll results are here.
Only the top three candidates in either party were included in matchups against each other. Here are the poll's findings among the Democratic primary voters comparing the 5/31/2007 poll to the 3/29/07 poll
- Hillary Clinton - 33% vs 36% in 3/29 poll (-3%).
- Al Gore - 16% vs 13% (+3%).
- Barack Obama - 13% vs 17% (-4%).
- John Edwards - 11% vs 9% (+2%).
- Someone Else - 4% vs 2% (+2%)
On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani led the field with 28%. He was followed by John McCain 11%, Fred Thompson 10%, Mitt Romney 9%, and Newt Gingrich 8%.
In other poll findings, George W. Bush's job approval/disapproval ratings were an abysmal 29%-67%. Even more people disapproved of his handling of the Iraq situation by a strong 70%-26%.
The matchups showed the following results
* Al Gore vs Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson. He beats two of the three and ties the third.
Gore 45 - Giuliani 44
Gore 44 - McCain 44
Gore 50 - F. Thompson 35
* Hillary Clinton vs Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson. She wins two and loses against the third.
Clinton 43 - Giuliani 47
Clinton 45 - McCain 43
Clinton 50 - F. Thompson 36
* Barack Obama vs Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson. He loses two and beats the third.
Obama 40 - Giuliani 45
Obama 41 - McCain 42
Obama 47 - F. Thompson 32
Looking at the poll's 'internals' and comparing the top three Democratic candidates vs Giuliani shows that compared to Clinton and Obama, Gore does best among Democrats, Independents, and men. He ties Obama for the support of Republicans and Clinton for support among women.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Gore 45% 8% 77% 38% 42% 48%
Giuliani 44 85 15 43 48 41
Clinton 43% 6% 76% 33% 38% 48%
Giuliani 47 87 16 50 52 42
Obama 40% 8% 66% 37% 38% 42%
Giuliani 45 81 20 45 49 42
Following the 2004 Election, the political map of the State of Pennsylvania was similar (though not identical) to the national map in one respect: it favored the Democratic Party in its (more liberal) eastern and western counties while the Republicans dominated PA's culturally conservative central counties in 2004.
This is only one poll and a snapshot of how things stand as of now. But it is in, what many political analysts consider, one of the three most important swing states - Florida and Ohio being the other two. I posted a diary after the previous Quinnipiac Poll came out on April 26, 2007 and, overall, Gore fared best among all the Democratic candidates vs the Republicans in those three states.
Al Gore's recent book 'The Assault on Reason' has generated a great deal of publicity (mostly positive) and the book has zoomed to the top on bestseller lists. Have other Democratic candidates raising tens of millions of dollars, engaging in debates, and generating other kinds of publicity since the beginning of this year hurt Gore's political standing? No, not at all.
For now, Al Gore's doing just fine for a candidate - announced or not.
Poll Methodology: From May 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,318 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 575 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, and 585 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.