As with my challenger rundown, I am listing the races alphabetically and not by turnover chance. The reason is that some races are shaping up, with announced candidates, and others are still big question marks.
Any races without at least one announced challenger are ignored for now.
Let us begin. Turn to page Below the Fold in your hymnals...
California 11
Jerry McNerney (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+3
Republicans have been crowing for a long time about Dean Andal, former State Assemblyman and current GOP candidate here. I'm not sure why they have been so hot for Andal, who if memory serves left office in the mid-'90s. Nevertheless, they are, and this is now officially a close race. McNerney, long attacked by Republicans as a librul (gasp!), has shown some maverick tendencies now that he's actually in Congress.
Connecticut 02
Joe Courtney (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: D+8
As Democratic as Eastern Connecticut is, this district has a history of upsets and close races (especially every six years: 1994, 2000, and 2006 all experienced nailbiters). Republicans are positively ecstatic about former Navy Officer Sean Sullivan and are convinced he will beat Courtney. Nevermind that Courtney has been one of the most attentive and engaged freshmen of the 2006 class. Early odds favor Courtney, but probably not by the 58-42 margin Cook has.
Connecticut 05
Chris Murphy (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: D+3
Murphy shocked us all by absolutely slamming Nancy Johnson 56-44 last year, and has shown no signs of complacency since. However, this being Connecticut's least reliably Democratic district, the Republicans are talking up State Sen. David Cappiello. Might be closer than 56-44, as Johnson really screwed herself with her backfiring attacks ("soft on terror") on Murphy, but the GOP underestimates our guy at their own peril.
Florida 16
Tim Mahoney (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+2
Well, Mahoney earned himself an ultra-vulnerable tag when he told the Hill "This isn't the greatest job I've had" (!!!!!). Geez. Well, at least the Republican primary looks crowded and expensive, with State Rep. Gayle Harrell, attorney Tom Rooney, real estate developer Mike Mett, attorney Rob Siedlecki, and Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche all in.
Florida 22
Ron Klein (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: D+4
Supposedly Klein should be trembling in his boots about a challenge from either Marc Flagg, flight engineer, Navy veteran, and son of 9/11 victims; or Allen West, a retired Army lieutenant colonel. While I have the utmost respect for military service, I'm not sure why these two candidates are supposed to be so intimidating. Klein is a fundraising powerhouse with the powers of incumbency in a Dem-leaning seat. He was able to beat a 26-year incumbent who was no slouch when it came to $ himself. Lean Klein barring a big gaffe.
Georgia 08
Jim Marshall (D) running for 4th term
Cook PVI: R+8
Chris Cillizza lauds retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard as the Republicans' "biggest recruiting victory of the cycle". He even speculates that Marshall will run for the Senate because he's so afraid of Goddard's challenge. Well, I see that every two years the NRCC gets all worked up about Marshall and has the world convinced he is toast, and every two years he's been okay. Now, yes, redistricting made his seat tougher. But he was able to survive a 2006 challenge from a former Congressman with very high name rec, and this round there won't be the same laser focus on him because of the abundance of freshman Dems in red districts.
Indiana 08
Brad Ellsworth (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+9
I've heard remarkably little buzz about former congressional aide Greg Goode as the GOP nominee. Maybe the NRCC is hoping they can do better.
Kansas 02
Nancy Boyda (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+7
Boyda has worked hard to carve out a moderate-conservative record in this heavily military district. She faces both former Rep. Jim Ryun (whom she defeated last round) and State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Supposedly the GOP primary is destined to get nasty between the "conservative" (Ryun) and the "moderate" (Jenkins). Ryun would seem to hold the upper hand.
Kentucky 03
John Yarmuth (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: D+3
Yarmuth is being challenged by Erwin Roberts, a former Fletcher aide and now an attorney. The Kentucky Republicans are euphoric! Hmm...I'm skeptical of anyone with any ties whatsoever to Fletcher as a candidate in Kentucky next year.
Minnesota 01
Tim Walz (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+1
Unlike Tim Mahoney, Tim Walz hasn't said anything stupid that we know of. But like him, he faces a crowded GOP field: physician Brian Davis, State Sen. Dick Day (wow, what a name), State Rep. Randy Demmer, and Lake Crystal School Board Member Mark Meyer. The buzz here has been slow and low-key. Republicans might still be looking for their guy or gal here.
New Hampshire 01
Carol Shea-Porter (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+1
Shea-Porter was never supposed to win last year. Not in the primary, not in the general. But her no-B.S. approach as a proud progressive shocked us all and won the day. Now she faces a rematch from ousted Rep. Jeb Bradley. I guess this will be a really close race, but New Hampshire isn't getting any more Republican.
New York 19
John Hall (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+1
Prepare yourself for the groan-inducing headlines: "Is Hall Still the One?" "Is Hall a Hit?" "Hall Trying to Prove He's Still the One" Eaucgh. Anyway, the first of the New York Trifecta will face Iraq veteran Kieran Michael Lalor. (Anyone noticing the preponderance of GOP candidates with military experience? It's like they're trying to outdo our recruiting success in '06 with Fighting Dems.)
New York 20
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+3
Possibly because of her vote on H.R. 2206, Gillibrand faces a primary challenge from peace activist Morris Guller. O-kay. In the meantime, she prepares to face former State GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell, who must win his primary against two others.
North Carolina 11
Heath Shuler (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+7
Shuler will be challenged by attorney John Armor. I've heard zip about this race, so I think that means the NRCC isn't confident.
Ohio 18
Zack Space (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+6
Space faces former Guernsey County Court of Common Pleas Magistrate (huh?) Jeanette Moll and attorney Paul Phillips. Given that they were eagerly writing his obituary five months ago, the lackluster recruitment is a bit shocking.
Pennsylvania 4
Jason Altmire (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+3
Former Allegheny County Commissioner Ron Francis was one of the first Republican candidates to announce. But I can't help but think that the NRCC is waiting for ousted Rep. Melissa Hart to get in, given the lack of arrogant chatter about how Altmire is toast.
Pennsylvania 10
Chris Carney (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+8
This should be the GOP's top pickup opportunity outside of TX-22. The field looks likely to be crowded, but so far U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (I know, can you even take the irony?) is looking like the preferred standard-bearer. Marino isn't officially in yet, but it seems likely.
Texas 22
Nick Lampson (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+15
Apparently, Congresswoman-for-a-day Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (I won't rehash the history, you probably remember) is in! Again! All other prospects for the moment are passing, from former Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace to State Rep. Charlie Howard. The GOP star du jour may be Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt (hmm, I thought the GOP didn't like taxes). Lampson's announcement that he will seek a second term undoubtedly elicited a collective sigh of relief from Dem faithful.
Texas 23
Ciro Rodriguez (D) running for 2nd term
Cook PVI: R+4
I am very confident in Rodriguez. The NRCC hopes they can push the magic librul button here, but in reality their only hope is to get a well-known, well-financed Latino Republican, and Henry Bonilla is over. So instead, they are hoping to recruit Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson. Meanwhile, only GOP activist Quico Canseco is officially in.
Amazingly, plenty of vulnerable Dem seats have no even rumored challengers yet.
NOTE: I originally wrote this diary last week but am too lazy to check whether new challengers have announced. Do tell me your thoughts, and if any news has arisen that I missed.