According to The Washington Examiner it looks like Tom Davis (R-VA) of the 11th district (All of Fairfax City and parts of Fairfax County and Prince William County) has reserved web space for a Senate run in 2008. It seems as if John Warner may have privately told him that he is retiring in 2008. If this is the case then it seems as if VA may host another competitive Senate race in 2008.
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Davis is popular in NVA, but the Democrats have Mark Warner. If John Warner retires then Mark Warner is the likely Democratic candidate. A Warner/Davis race would be a tossup, but I think that Warner would be able to win over him. NVA is turning Democratic and I think that Warner can hold on his own in rural VA and the Shenendoah. In a Davis/Warner race the battlegrounds become Hampton Roads and NVA. I think that Warner is popular enough to defeat Davis.
In such a scenario the 11th district becomes a top tier race. In the 2000 redistricting the VA legislature created three suburban/exurban DC districts. The 8th, which belongs to Jim Moran, includes Alexandria, Arlington, parts of Fairfax County (a sliver of McLean and Tysons Corner and Reston), and Falls Church. This is the safe Democratic district. The 10th, which belongs to Frank Wolf (including parts of Fairfax County--McLean, Chantilly, Herndon, parts of Vienna, etc--Loudoun County, Mannasass, Manasass Park, parts of Prince William County Winchester, and the northern part of the Shenendoah Valley), was designed to be safely Republican. However, Kaine and Webb both carried the 8th and the 10th.
That leaves the 11th as the swing district. It includes southern Fairfax County, Springfield, Burke, Fairfax City, Fairfax Station, Annandale, and extends into Western Prince William County. It is the swing district, though it leans to the Republicans. However, as with the 8th and the 10th, it went solidly for Kaine and Webb. This district is a battleground and I would think that the Democrats would have the upperhand for it.
So it looks like VA may be hosting at least two top tier races this year. If Frank Wolf draws a strong challenger--Judy Feder has declared to run again--then there could be two competitive house races in VA. If Thelma Drake draws a strong Democratic challenger down in Norfolk and VA Beach then there might be three competitive races