Don't get fooled into argueing the message so much that you miss the goal
I live and work in Washington D.C. In particular I am in and around the hill constantly. I see a pervasive trend going on right now that for whatever reason is really troubling to me. People are getting so wrapped up in the debate of things that I thought I would do a diary to help sort out how information is used by both parties to get and keep you focused on DC. Recently I have been involved in several blogs and comment groups and found myself debating with people who are very sincere but do not realize in the least that they have been spun. Hence I have decided to post what for me is daily observation of "DC Methods" in the hopes that people can see through the junk and understand what's really going on sometimes.
Preface: There on basically 5 electorate blocks for DC politicians. Far Right, Center Right, Center, Left Center, Far Left. They only work to get the center. Under the current political landscape only the center matters. As far as the DC believes the left will always vote DEM. The Right will always vote GOP. Basically because they have no other alternate. They can get as mad as they want but they will still vote the same. The center however is viewed as really tough. They are perceived as HUGE (I’ve heard numbers as high as (20-30%). They rarely vote except in major elections. They also are politically illiterate. Most could not tell you who the secretary of state is. They live in the world of sound bites. It is perceived (right or wrong) that they:
• Want congress to be strong on national defense
• Don’t like the Iraq war - not because we are there but because we are not winning (key point)
• Want some kind of immigration reform
• Don’t really care about abortion
• Believe in GOD
• Don’t want to be told that it’s "OK to be Gay"
• Don’t want the President to be impeached (despite polls)
Keeping that in mind if you look at what congress is doing right now you can see why some things are the way they are.
In congress there are essentially only 4 categories of business:
- The Main Goal – SEATS it is the only thing that matters. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. Seats are power to wield policy. Seats in congress gives control on all legislation. It essentially leaves the minority powerless except for procedural moves and a lot of public complaining. The White House seat is the second pillar. It can stop congress from doing just about everything. Seats on the court can force states to do even what they do not want to do. These seats truly are the viewed as the most powerful in the land. The main goal NEVER, NEVER changes. Both parties are all about Seats. It may look like it is being set aside for a time but it always business and business means gaining and holding seats
- The Situation –Situations change. The only situations that really mean anything to congress are those than can affect seats. While they deal with many situations and issues, the ones that get the big message are the ones that get non-voters and people in the CENTER thinking about DC. Everybody else already is thinking politics.
- The Message-The message is anything that a particular party uses to "rally" voters. It rarely has anything to do with actual goals. It does not have to even be true. It only has to function to further the objective or goal. It is delivered via the various tools available to each party. Today it is characterized by short phrases such and "tax cuts for the rich" or "death Tax" or "fight them there so we don’t have to fight them here" or the ever popular "tax and spend", "cut and run". What’s important is to repeat the message until people in the CENTER believe it, even if it is a lie. Sorry to say it but both parties do it and do it VERY VERY well. So well in fact that even when most people think they see through the lie of one party they fall for the lie of the other one.
- The Methods-Pretty constant right now. The current methods are (for the last 8-10 years or so by both sides)
• Demonize the opposition party - Some of the Standard lines used( by both parties) "They are radical", "out of touch with the American People", "violating our most sacred constitution values". At all costs they must appear at worst evil or at best incompetent
• Split the opposition party – phrases like "Bi-Partisan" are used constantly. The fact is that the DEMS have conservatives as much as the GOP has moderates.
• Present you party as the best hope
• Find points in committee hearings, testimonies, and reports to further "Proof" that the message is True! (I like this one the best) It always starts with "The hearings or committee found that......" actually someone just said it in the hearing (it’s really funny to see people site congressional hearings- read them sometimes and you find the result proposed was not the result the hearing came to. These guys are truly MASTERS at this one).
- The Tools- Tools are the single most important and complicated thing parties use to get the message out. There are many but the main 3 are:
- Polls – They are all crap except one kind. The only good ones are internal polls (these are polls done by local district people for their representative in order to keep them informed about how their electorate feels). There are several different kinds of polls that voters fall victim to.
• Opinion polls- If a paper runs a poll of 500 of its subscribers and all 500 have the same answer it will say something like "In a recent survey 100% of the people polled said". Typically TV news guys use these. Only problem is that their audiences are not generally diverse enough. For example, Progressives don’t tend to watch FOX for the most part and Conservatives don’t tend to watch CNN
• Editorial polls – these are polls commissioned to support a message that a party wants to get out. They are in essence done so that the result supports or proves the editorial being written. Watch out for these almost always bogus
• Commissioned polls – these are either done directly by the organization or contracted to a polling house.
What’s important to note is that every one of these polls are meaningless. They are almost always targeted. Polling houses have learned over the past decades that if the GOP wants a poll to support an issue, a national poll with a "random" sampling of upper class zip codes will be called and questions will be phrased in such a way as to get the result needed. If the DEMS want the same thing they will call the inner city or lower economic areas to support their data. The point is they are all done in order to support an opinion or message or talking point. How the question is asked and what area you are calling is key to the poll. The cardinal rule is follow the money and what zip the calls were in.
- Talking Heads – These are people who take the message to the media with a face. They are essentially always "ON-Message" when a camera or microphone is near. They get the talking points memos and carry them to the world. This category includes DJ’s, Newscasters, Editorial columnists, bloggers, etc. Anyone who is in essence trying to create, further, or carry out policy. It’s interesting hear, Conservatives are conservative regardless of party. They hate even GOP guys who aren’t conservative.
- Committee hearings – Usually highly partisan and designed to show congress is doing something.
Example1: Bill Clinton
The goal
Republicans wanted to protect and gain seats. They wanted the white house in 2000 in order to be able to control both congress and the white house so they could change existing policies and law as well as get Supreme Court seats.
The Situation
Popular President, Good economy.
The Method
Get special counsel and investigate until you get something, anything that will bring him down or discredit him
The Message
"He lied under oath", "Polls-majority say he should be impeached",
The Tools
T-heads carried the message, editorial guys and DJ’s created and defined the supporting arguments.
Committee hearings were held and articles drafted
Result – Failed in the Senate not because it have support
New Message –
DEMS-Was not an impeachable offense
GOP – We tried
Real Situation - Moderates in both parties were afraid it would cost them seats in the next election because the center would be angry at them
Example2: Iraq
I like this because it hot right now.
Before we went into IRAQ the majority of congress had seen Afghanistan taken by what was primarily a CIA operation with military support. Bush got Credit DEMS hated that. The real fact was however that after 911 few on the hill were willing to take a chance that Saddam might "friendly up" to AQ one we left. We knew he was paying off the French and sanctions were within months of being lifted. Now he was going to use the full Military to get Saddam. Most of Congress as well as Bush thought it would be a cakewalk. Seats were at stake in 04. DEMs needed to get on the bandwagon. It was also obvious that IRAN would be boxed in and any AQ fighters who were left would be to consumed with fighting in IRAQ in order to do suicide missions in the west looked like a great plan.
The goal
Republicans wanted to protect and gain seats. DEMS wanted to prevent further loss and possibly get WH
The Situation
Popular President, improving economy, fresh perceived success in a conflict.
The Method
Drum up a reason to go into IRAQ
The Message
"WMD’s", "AQ trying to set up shop there", "repeatedly violated UN Sanctions"
The Tools
T-heads carried the message, editorial guys and DJ’s created and defined the supporting arguments. Even the new York times had front page articles about WMD’s. UN had also catalogue about 500k tons of various junk before they were kicked out. Committee hearings were held and REPS were falling all over themselves (except for a few) to get in front of a microphone and say how they had seen the intelligence and had investigated and we needed to do this
Result – Here we are today
New Situation - Seats at stake in 08, Unpopular congress, neither party wants to get stuck with IRAQ.
New Method –
DEMS - Demonize the administration, Bombard Bush with investigations, Call for immediate pullout if we get hit by AQ blame Bush for being there in the first place and creating all these terrorists, Make it Bush’s war if he leaves call it a success for the DEMS!. Hit social issues too. Tax the rich(over 200k), healthcare.
GOP – Stay on message, strong on national defense, stay in Iraq until after election so that when we pull out DEMS get blamed it goes to AQ and we get hit, protect tax cuts to keep treasury revenue high and economy moving. If IRAQ is lost call them and have them publically say it’s Ok to leave whenever we want, Declare mission a success for the GOP!
New Message
DEMS - "He lied to us!", "Impeachment is off the table"(For the center voters)
GOP – "Need to fight them there so we don’t have to fight them here"
All this could change on a dime
Truth is somewhere in the center
Some real truths about DC (Some good some bad)
• Although the constitution is an important document publically it’s meaningless when trying to implement policy. In DC it’s about seats. Generally the constitution is used in the message only. That is all. It is not the guiding force like people think it is
• The real problem that will sink everything and that is consuming congress right now is currency collapse even to head of the GAO has started going on a speaking tour about it. Over 20 million people a year for the next 20 years are going to start showing up for social security and Medicare benefits. The whole thing is broke now and we have not backed our money with real dollars since 1971. Where do you think it’s going to come from (Another topic for another time)
• Despite what people say, lower taxes mean greater tax revenue to the government look at the actuals
• New representatives are generally GREAT! (I wish to GOD we had term limits)
• GOP wants little or no Government DEMS want BIG government they both want seats!
• House and Senate Pages REALLY REALLY care
• Most bills that are voted on in congress are NOT written or even read by the congressmen (other than the sponsor, co-sponsor, and a few people who are directly affected) who vote on them
• Lobby groups really do rule – especially in the house. They draft or directly impact a lot of legislation
• "Where they are loud they are proud" it’s the quiet ones who really get things done
• "You want my vote on your bill, you better give me your vote on my bill"
• If your zip code is E-i-E-i-O your probably in the center
• DEMS hate oil companies publically but love the revenues privately – you think Exxon is making money? Look at the US treasury and state gas tax receipts. Kill the oil business and kill the revenue.
• GOP really wants health care but state level not federal
• www.ontheissues.org is used by everybody to see who voted how.