The polls closed at 2000 hours JST (7:00 a.m. Eastern U.S. time) on July 29, 2007, here in Japan.
These elections are for the upper house (the House of Councillors), with half the seats up for grabs. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) isn't liberal or democratic. It's conservative and lately has been trying to amend Japan's pacifist constitution to permit military expansion and more aggressive overseas deployments. The LDP's Bush-friendly Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, could be forced from power with a particularly bad poll result.
Results are devastating for the ruling party, with the main social liberal party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), cruising to victory.
Abe and his party are suffering voter wrath primarily due to the pensions scandals. A government agency admitted to losing millions of pension payment records, casting doubt on whether many citizens will receive their full benefits. In a country with one of the most elderly populations in the world, pension problems are the rough equivalent of Hurricane Katrina mismanagement.
The LDP needed to win 64 of the 121 seats up for election in order to maintain control of the House of Councillors; that didn't happen. The lower house actually chooses the Prime Minister, but there will be substantial political pressure on Abe to resign after tonight's results.
Update at 0924 JST 30Jul: Good morning. The final totals are in: LDP 37, DPJ 60, and minor parties with the remainder. The New Komeito Party, the minor party that aligns with the LDP, won only 9. The Left takes firm control of the upper house: 137 for the opposition to 105 for the LDP and its sympathizers.
Older updates:
Update at 2307 JST: Now interviewing minor party leaders. Good night, everyone. Please continue to post comments if you'd like.
Update at 2301 JST: Just as I was about the shut off the TV, Prime Minister Abe started appearing on NHK for a live interview. He says he promised "reforms" to the electorate, so he wants to continue working to deliver on those promises. He's trying to hang on. LDP 30, DPJ 56, 19 to call. NHK flashed a DPJ uptick while Abe's mug was on screen.
Update at 2300 JST: LDP 30, DPJ 55, minors 16, 20 to call. It's getting quite late here, so this is my final update tonight. Please continue to post comments with new information.
Update at 2240 JST: LDP 29, DPJ 55, minors 16, 21 to call. Japan has extremely strict election laws which favor incumbents. The laws severely limit campaigning, so much so that it's impossible to tell there was an election coming up. (No signs, no advertising, etc.) It is illegal to have a campaign blog. Thus this result is that much more shocking.
Update at 2229 JST: LDP 27, DPJ 55, minors 16, 23 to call. "It might have been too early for [Abe] to announce his decision," says one LDP parliamentarian live on NHK.
Update at 2223 JST: The DPJ has swept all but three of the single seat districts, which are predominantly rural and less affluent.
Update at 2216 JST: NHK is focusing on the many women winning seats tonight. There are very few women in Japanese politics, but that's changing.
Update at 2213 JST: NHK has Abe on TV now. Abe allegedly will soldier on. Just like President Bush, he's ignoring the people's will.
Update at 2206 JST: Another LDP politician, the upper house caucus leader, signals he may personally resign and offers less than a full-throated defense of Abe, echoing the "It's up to him" line. NHK interprets this as support for Abe, but it sounds like a "Fox News" analyst's wishful thinking.
Update at 2203 JST: Counting minor parties, the opposition is beating the LDP coalition by 11 seats to 5 in Tokyo. The DPJ's win is truly national in scope.
Update at 2159 JST: The social liberal DPJ easily exceeds its all time record of 50 seats in the upper house election 3 years ago, and there are still many seats left. NHK says they'll be interviewing PM Abe.
Update at 2148 JST: DPJ 55, making its own optimistic target. Still 24 to call.
Update at 2147 JST: DPJ 54, 25 to call.
Update at 2146 JST: LDP 27, DPJ 53, minors 15, 26 to call.
Update at 2142 JST: LDP 27, otherwise nothing new.
Update at 2140 JST: LDP lost all the seats in Shikoku, one of the four main Japanese islands.
Update at 2132 JST: LDP 26, DPJ 52, minors 15, 28 seats to call. Note that one of the minor parties supports the ruling coalition.
Update at 2120 JST: Minor parties now at 14; 30 seats left to call.
Update at 2114 JST: LDP Secretary General on NHK not going out of his way to defend Abe, basically saying, "It's up to him."
Update at 2105 JST: In Chiba Prefecture it's LDP 2, DPJ 9.
Update at 2101 JST: LDP stuck at 25, DPJ 52, minor parties 13. The LDP has lost control of the House of Councillors. There's a thunderstorm in Tokyo tonight (literally).
Update at 2056 JST: The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the social liberals, are crushing the conservative LDP. DPJ is now at 51 with 33 left to decide.
Update at 2052 JST: Truly devastating for Abe's LDP. DPJ now at 50.
Update at 2049 JST: LDP 25, DPJ 49, minor parties still 12, 35 unknown.
Update at 2048 JST: LDP 25, DPJ 47, 37 unknown.
Update at 2045 JST: LDP 24, DPJ 46, 39 seats left to declare.
Update at 2038 JST: So far Tokyo is a sweep for the Democratic Party, with 3 seats declared. The LDP hasn't won any in Tokyo. The DPJ now has 43. NHK says that the LDP will probably fall short of the 44 seats which forced a PM to resign in a previous election.
Update at 2036 JST: DPJ now has 41. There are 46 seats with results still unknown.
Update at 2034 JST: NHK reports that exit polls indicate the LDP will fall short of the 64 seats needed to maintain control.
Update at 2031 JST: So far, according to NHK, LDP has 22 seats, Democratic Party of Japan (main opposition) has 40. Minor parties have won 12 seats.