Defying the the threat of losing delegates to the national convention, the Michigan House passed a January 15 primary bill this afternoon. The bill passed the state Senate last week. Governor Jennifer Granholm will sign the bill, according to the Politico.
The move comes just days after the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee found a similar early primary in Florida to violate party rules, voting to strip Florida of its delegates unless a substitute plan was devised within 30 days. The Michigan move is certain to set off another round of debate about the primary calendar and place a second state's delegates in jeopardy.
The Michigan move also means that New Hampshire will be forced by its own law to move its primary to January 8 and presents a likelihood that Iowa's precinct caucuses will fall in December 2007, perhaps as early as December 15.
From the Detroit Free Press:
"Michigan voters will have a chance to help select the next president early in 2008 as lawmakers today approved a Jan. 15 presidential primary.
The early date had support from a majority of Republicans and Democrats, but will arouse the ire of traditionally early-primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire and possibly national party officials.
The Jan. 15 date would make Michigan’s the first primary, but other states are expected to leapfrog ahead. The House approved the new date 67-34. The Senate vote was 36-0. Gov. Jennifer Granholm is expected to sign the bill." Full story here: http://www.freep.com/...
The likelihood that Governor Granholm will sign the bill was bolstered by a letter that was obtained and published on the Politico website. Addressed to the Democratic and Republican candidates, Granholm states that she will sign the bill and urges the candidates to campaign in Michigan. She further states "I understand that Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina are circulating a letter to presidential candidates that asks them to sign a pledge not to campaign in any state that gives its voters a real voice in the nominating process by moving its primary into the month of January. I urge you not to sign this pledge and instead to come to Michigan and engage our citizens in a serious dialogue on the critical federal issues that affect their lives – issues like the manufacturing crisis, the cost of health care, and unfair trade policies. These are issues that the next president must resolve and that challenge Michigan like no other state. I hope you will recognize that these issues facing the people of Michigan are far more important than the politics of the parties’ respective nominating contests." Link to full text of letter here: http://www.politico.com/...
Because action was taken last weekend to strip Florida of delegates because of a January 29 primary, it seems almost certain that similar steps will be taken against Michigan, a state that, unlike Florida, has a Democratic House and Governor. Michigan's Democratic State Chair, Mark Brewer, has publicly opposed the early primary bill.
Since New Hampshire law requires that its primary take place at least 7 days prior to any other similar contest, the Michigan move will cause the New Hampshire primary to be moved forward to January 8 at the latest. The New Hampshire move, in turn, is likely to push the Iowa caucuses into December 2007. While Governor Culver has stated that Iowa will caucus in January, a January 8 primary in New Hampshire means that Iowa cannot follow its own law that requires caucuses to be held at least 8 days before any other contest in an even numbered year. 8 days before January 8 is New Year's Eve. Because any other date in January would fall so soon before New Hampshire, it seems likely that Iowa will be forced to move the caucus date back to December, and, in all likelihood. at a time before the holidays, most likely Saturday December 15 or Monday December 17.