The latest Rassmussen Reports summary is out, and I am convinced that if these numbers (or anything similar) still exist in November and December of this year (now only four months away) the key to the Democratic nomination will rest on the strength of the fears that with Hillary Clinton as our nominee, she might lose a Presidential election a year later that should be ours rather easily.
I strongly support Edwards because he will be the best possible president of anyone currently running, but this diary is focused to the reason why I think he is going to win the nomination.
The numbers are here and the favorables and unfavorables are particularly stark.
Hillary Clinton has favorables of 49 and unfavorables of 48 for a net favorable of + 1
Barack Obama has favorables of 48 and unfavorables of 45 for a net favorable of + 3
John Edwards has favorables of 54 and unfavorables of only 39 for a net favorable of + 15
In potential General Election matchups against Rudy Guiliani,
Hillary leads by only 1 point (46-45)
Obama leads by 6 points ( 47-41)
Edwards leads by 7 points (49-42)
In a potential General Election matchup with Fred Thompson
Hillary trails by 1 (46-45)
Obama leads by 6 (46-40)
Edwards leads by 11 (50-29_
In a potential General Election matchup with Mitt Romney
Hillary leads by 4 (46-42)
Obama leads by 9 (47-38)
Edwards leads by 16 (52-36)
In a potential General Election matchup with John McCain
Hillary leads by 2 (45-43)
Obama leads by 6 (45-40)
Edwards leads by 7 (45-38)
I don't think there is really very much that Hillary can do about these numbers. She can argue that polls a year away are notoriously non-predictive but with nearly 48 percent of the country consistently saying they will vote for any Republican against Hillary she essentially stands like a very unpopular incumbent. If she gets lucky she might eke out a narrow general election victory but at best it will be close and she will have to be lucky. Once she loses the first primary (Iowa caucus to be specific) there will be a further depletion of her support as her inevitability argument will fade.