How are the Democrats doing? Everyone thinks we are doing well. But the presidency isn't a national race, it's a bunch of local ones. So, I'm gonna take a look at the states that were close in 2004, and see what I can see.
You can see it, below the fold
Which states were close in 2004?
Wisconsin Kerry 0.4%
Iowa Bush 0.7%
New Mexico Bush 0.8%
New Hampshire Kerry 1.4%
Ohio Bush 2.0%
Nevada Bush 2.5%
Pennsylvania Kerry 2.5%
Minnesota Kerry 3.4%
Michigan Kerry 3.4%
Oregon Kerry 4%
Colorado Bush 4%
Now, let's look at how these states have changed, since 2004. One way to do that is to look at the makeup of the Senates and Houses of each state.
Senate House
Wisconsin 2004 19R 14D 60R 39D
2006 15R 18D 52R 47D
Iowa 2004 25R 25D 51R 49D
2006 20R 30D 47R 53D
New Mexico 2004 28R 42D 18R 24D
2006 28R 41D 18R 24D
1 vacant
New Hampshire 2004 16R 8D 253R 147D
2006 10R 14D 161R 239D
Ohio 2004 22R 11D 60R 39D
2006 21R 12D 53R 46D
Nevada 2004 12R 9D 16R 26D
2006 11R 10D 15R 27D
Pennsylvania 2004 30R 20D 110R 93D
2006 29R 21D 101R 102D
Minnesota 2004 31R 35D 68R 66D
1 I
2006 23R 44D 49R 85D
Michigan 2004 22R 16D 58R 52D
2006 21R 17D 52R 58D
Oregon 2004 12R 18D 33R 27D
2006 11R 18D 29R 31D
1 I
Colorado 2004 17R 18D 30R 35D
2006 15R 20D 26R 39D
So, of 11 close states, the Democrats gained in 20 races, and lost in 1, maybe (it went from Democratic to Vacant), and 1 stayed the same.
Looking good!
Update [2007-8-9 21:37:29 by plf515]: so, which will switch? Dem to Rep - none. Rep to Dem: Iowa, Ohio, maybe Nevada and Colorado, and see comments for more. That's if the general election is close.