If you are exposed to the media at all, whether it be the networks, the internet, talk radio, etc... the common reporting lately is that there is some progress in Iraq, due to in some part to the additional troops of the "surge", progress especially apparent in Anbar province. It seems the strategy of including Sunni tribes into the fight against Al Queda is paying off in the short term because the locals realize these crazy Islamist extremists are a lot worse to deal with than the Americans. They understand it's in their best interest to take the weapons provided by the military and use them to kill the radical bastards who have shown to be worse than Saddam in their treatment of the local population.
This however was not the purpose of the surge, which is basically focused in Baghdad and meant to bring stability to the capital. It is related to it only because by adding more troops to Baghdad it allows US forces to remain in areas once captured that would have immediately been left to Iraqi troops who are woefully ineffective.
Rather this success is a result of the Patreus counter-insurgency strategy which began before the surge. This strategy is especially effective in Anbar because it's historically Sunni population which co-opts the insurgency while being a barren desert with no natural resources in it to make it worth coveting by anybody.
The first point I want to make is that the reported success coming out of Iraq, after having almost nothing positive come out of there in almost a year except constant reports of more suicide bombings, more civilian and military casualties, terrorism and the strong possibility of a US defeat has given the American people a sense of guarded optimism that maybe things won't be so bleak and catastrophic and aren't completely hopeless after all.
Democrats have to realize this. And fast!
Democrats (of which I have been a proud member my entire political life) need to adjust to the current perception that progress, though isolated and minor (and basically accidental on Bush's part since the surge has almost nothing to do with it), may indeed be happening and worth acknowledging.
Acknowledging it immediately and clearly for it's success but letting the American people know we still understand the mission must change as well as our role in it.
Americans want to avoid a bitter defeat. Vietnam, and the feeling of defeat it caused still hurts and haunts the American psyche. Even if Bush was stupidly insane to go into Iraq in the first place doesn't mean America wants to get it's ass handed to it and shamed in front of the whole world by a bunch of extremist fanatics because they are willing to blow themselves and everyone else to kingdom come to create terror and anarchy.
Democrats must be careful not to appear to the American electorate to be rooting for failure in Iraq just to make Bush a bigger loser.
This brings me to my second point.
Stop calling for troops withdrawals now!
US troops will be coming home in April 2008 no matter what we say or do... period. Bush has enough votes to sustain a veto and is not going to reduce forces before April so stop throwing yourself under the bus to make him tell you so.
In order for he surge to stay in place longer than April 2008 the tours of duty would need to be extended to 18 months and that is never going to happen. So come hell or high water our forces will start coming home in Spring and we should be adjusting our strategy to use that fact to our advantage so as to avoid looking defeatist and appearing only interested in political advantage over our enemy George Bush.
This the single biggest reason I believe Hillary is dominating the rest of he Democratic Presidential candidates, simply because she looks willing to hang tough while the rest of the pack fights over withdrawal dates and who's more anti-war.
I am not a big Hillary fan but she gets high scores from primary voters in the foreign policy area. I believe this is the reason.
Right now Bush is killing us in the politics of the matter and we just look feckless in our insistence on forcing Democrats to vote on a losing effort. We are making Bush look steadfast and committed to winning while Democrats look weak and interested in short-term politics and also totally ineffective.
Bush may be an idiot but he knows how to run a campaign and that's the way he has approached this whole matter.
It's the politics, stupid...and right now he's winning!
The only thing Bush has gotten right in the six years he has been in power is the politics. In the long run he is always exposed as a fuck-up and a liar but in the short term he has been very effective at making the Democrats look like unpatriotic politically motivated cowards...which he will do again unless we are smart enough to re-tool our message to one that assumes the troops will be there until spring 2008 and focus on the next phase of the war.
That's where we can be most effective and seize the the high-ground of the debate from Bush, let him take the heat or the credit of the next few months while we Democrats look to the future of Iraq and our mission there.
Iraq, as an issue, is going to be there in the 2008 elections but things may look different than they do today.
If things start going well we don't want to look like we did everything in our power to pull out our forces early while Bush and the GOP stayed strong and saved America from the defeatist Democrats and spared America
another defeat like Vietnam.
I'm not saying we all jump aboard the Bush war-wagon, I am against this war and have been from the very beginning of it, but Democrats need to show they can lead this country in war.
For the sake of America Democrats need to win and win big in 2008.
If we plan to lead this country then we must be prepared to do so in a country at war with all the resolve needed and the suffering and hardship that flows from it. We need to be the party that will first seek peace but also be strong and fearsome in the face of our enemies.
Democrats need to keep up the pressure on the Whitehouse and the Iraqi government which the American people know are both incompetent and stubborn while we start acknowledging the progress out troops are making and start looking like leaders in a war not the leaders in a withdrawal.
The troops are going to begin coming home in 7 months, if not sooner, if we do everything or nothing and Bush can keep them there that long in spite of almost everything we do.
Lets not make Bush seem like a hero and that he's avoiding defeat for resisting Democrats calls for withdrawals until Spring while he then takes all the credit for bringing forces home simply because his over-extending of the military can be sustained no longer and troops must start coming home anyway.
Don't let this idiot from Texas and the powerful GOP media machine once again out-maneuver us into turning their biggest foreign policy blunder into a reason for the them to appear strong and wise while at the same time making the Democrats appear weak and unable to show we have the stomach to lead America in wartime.
America wants to trust the Democrats, they know Bush and the GOP have been a disaster for this country, lets not give them yet another reason to cling to the Republicans out of fear simply because they think we just aren't up to the task of leading America in this fight and in a very dangerous world.