In my opinion the world is going to make it or not make it on one key issue - nuclear proliferation. At the point where 50 countries and a couple of rogue organizations have the bomb, our chances for survival begin to approach zero. We're headed straight for that right now.
Ignoring Iran's nuclear program won't make it disappear. Diplomatic negotiations by themselves will not work. Bombing Iran may set their program back, but will have innumerable utterly unknowable results. There is nothing but trouble up that road.
I have worked in the Iranian oil industry, off-shore on an oil platform. I can assure you that not 1% of the equipment that is needed to drill for, or even pump oil is made in Iran. Much of the expertise needed to run the oil industry comes from foreigners as well.
Blockading oil tankers leaving the two major terminals in Iran would be child's play for the US Navy. Stopping the shipment of oil equipment wouldn't be much harder. We could put a serious squeeze on foreign experts as well. If the Iranian military wanted to oppose any of this they wouldn't last long. It might be worthwhile to "carpet bomb" the entire country with leaflets explaining that we have no gripes with the Iranian people themselves. Maybe we might drop a million short wave radios that we could broadcast to while we're at it.
There is simply no question that we could shut down Iran's oil industry. Then the US, or better yet the EU could offer the carrots.
- An end to the embargo.
- Full membership in the WTO.
- Most importantly, a treaty signed by the US and all members of the EU that we will not allow anyone to attempt to overthrow the government of Iran either overtly or covertly.
All we want in return is for them to permanently shut down all nuclear facilities and not acquire nuclear equipment or materials from outside.
Everything I am suggesting is totally doable. If you disagree with this approach give me your alternative.