My preferred candidate, Barack Obama, is at demographic disadvantage in Iowa. His base is young people and minorities, two groups that likely won't make up a big block of caucus voters.
There's been a lot of news coverage about whether or not Iowa's young people will finally show up at the caucuses this time. But there hasn't been much discussion of the small but active minority population in Iowa. That's why I found this story interesting...
Black voters in diverse Iowa city voice support for Obama
Guardian Unlimited
Iowa is often described in journalistic shorthand as one of the whitest states in the country, and the small black population of just 2% is largely ignored. But in this city of 67,000, 14% of the population is African American - slightly higher than the national figure of 13%.
In an election featuring the most viable African-American candidate in history and the spouse of a former president once called "the first black president," and in a Democratic contest that every poll shows a dead heat with the caucusing just days away, what happens in Waterloo could matter a lot.
That would be good news for Barack Obama. Black leaders and citizens interviewed over the holidays expressed broad support for Obama and largely shunned Hillary Clinton.
In interviews, prominent members of Waterloo's black community overwhelmingly supported the Illinois senator. They described Obama as more honest, sincere and charismatic, and praised his background as a community organiser in Chicago. For the most part, black Obama supporters in Waterloo said they're not supporting him merely because he's black - but agreed that it doesn't hurt.
"He could be from Mars with green hair, and if he spoke to the needs of the community, I'd support him," said Quentin Hart, a Waterloo city councilman.
...
The Reverend Joseph Baring, minister at Payne Memorial African Methodist Episcopal Church, said Obama's work helping displaced and unemployed Chicagoans before entering politics brought him into the Obama camp.
Sitting in his church office on recent morning wearing a blue Nike tracksuit over an Obama campaign T-shirt, the 62-year-old pastor said Obama's message adheres closely to his denomination's teachings.
"Barack seems like the most straightforward, honest person that I've met," Baring said. "He looks at things from a moral standpoint."
Black Waterloo residents uniformly scorned the question, raised early in the campaign, of whether Obama, who was reared by a white mother and grandparents in Hawaii and Indonesia, is "black enough."
"Class, character and demographics do not trump race, because in this society the colour of your skin comes first," Goodson said.
Most black residents of Waterloo were cool to Clinton, a somewhat surprising posture given her and her husband's ties to black America.
Turnout is a mystery to everyone, and thus it's tough to poll Iowa. But the much awaited Des Moines Register poll is about to come out tonight, so I might as well make a prediction just for fun:
Edwards - Low 30's
Clinton - High 20's
Obama - Low 20's
I think Edwards will win, partly because of the million dollars of 527 money but mainly because he's a helluva campaigner and can relate to small town Iowan voters. It would have been a real shocker if Obama could have made the Howard Dean youth voter model actually work in Iowa, where rural precincts with older voters have increased caucus importance. But as long as Obama beats Dean's 19% benchmark and doesn't scream into the cameras, then Obama will be able to move his people-powered grassroots campaign on to more diverse states. That's part of the reason that the Obama campaign has such an extensive February 5 strategy, with offices across the country.
I'm hoping my poll prediction is wrong and that there will be record turnout among Iowa's youth and minorities...enough to carry Obama over the finish line. But if not, I look forward to a Feb. 5 primary battle, and then a March 4 showdown in Texas!
Texas could be key to nominations
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Typically a nonfactor in the presidential primaries, Texas may have a chance to wield more clout in 2008.
Just days away from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, some experts believe that neither party may have a candidate who locks up the presidential nomination during the early part of the season. If there's no clear winner after the 20-state Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, the remaining candidates will likely head to Texas in droves in advance of the March 4 primary here.
"It is possible Texas could play a big role," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "It's more possible than it seemed to be two to three months ago, when there seemed to be front-runners in both parties.
"Now all of that is mixed up," he said. "Some candidates have seen their poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire decline, and others have taken leads there."
Happy New Year! Bring on 2008!