Cross-Posted from Policy Insight.Org
Mike Bloomberg’s expected candidacy would change the calculus of the presidential race and could even lead to a bizarre scenario where the Senate picks the president for the first time in history.
Bloomberg hasn’t announced, but it is clear that he wants to run as an independent. He has put together a team that could make it happen. While mere multi-millionaires have to decide whether to spend heavily on a campaign, or use their money for something else, billionaire Mike can outspend everyone in the race and still have enough money left to buy everything he can think of.
First, a third-party candidate would juggle the races in close states. As a centrist, Bloomberg would most likely hurt the party that nominates the candidate that is furthest from the center. If the major parties pick Dennis Kucinich and Duncan Hunter, the band better get ready to play "Hail to Mike."
It’s possible that having two white men in the race (Bloomberg and any one of the Republicans) could boost the chances of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. The women and/or minority vote would be undiluted while the Anglo males would be split.
It would get really interesting if Mike does well enough to win some states. (Mike does everything well.) No one can win in the Electoral College without 270 votes, and both parties will have a very hard time getting to that number if even a few of the battle ground states are captured by Bloomberg. Bush had only 271 electoral votes in 2000 and 286 in 2004. If Ohio or Florida had gone to a third-party candidate in 2004, the Electoral College would have passed responsibility for selecting the president to the U.S. House.
When the House votes for president, they vote by state, with each state getting one vote. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats currently have the requisite 26 state delegations in the House.
The current breakdown is 21 House delegations controlled by Republicans and 25 led by Democrats. Arizona, Kansas, Indiana and Mississippi are evenly split. Indianapolis will have a special election to replace Democrat Julia Carson who died in mid-December. Arizona Democrats have a shot at picking up the rural CD1 seat held by the disgraced Republican Rick Renzi. But if the GOP nominates Arizona favorite son John McCain, it will be more difficult for the Dems to hold Harry Mitchell’s recently captured CD5 on the east side of Phoenix.
The split of the congressional delegations is far different than the usual blue state-red state dichotomy of presidential politics. The Republicans control the House delegation of Michigan, while the Democrats have North Carolina and North Dakota.
Twenty-two states could flip sides with the change of just one Congressional seat in the upcoming election.
The flipping could be more interesting after the election. A representative could find it an optimum time to switch parties, especially if the presidential vote in his district went against his party. If there is something on the table (or under the table) congressmen are usually willing to talk. A highway bridge from Alaska to Japan might be too ridiculous to discuss, but moving the Pentagon to Sioux Falls could be, "well ... ah ... environmentally responsible . . . and certainly in the interests of the people of South Dakota."
Again, it only works if one party can get a majority, in this case 26 votes. If not, then it takes a turn to the bizarre.
The Senate would meet to select between the vice presidential candidates. Unless the Democrats face an unexpected disaster, they should control the Senate and elect their candidate as vice president. The 20th Amendment says:
"If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified;"
One wonders if the Republicans would try to filibuster a selection of the vice president if the Democrats are short of 60 votes for cloture. Probably not. The Constitution says:
"a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice."
It’s doubtful that many Republicans would come out strongly against the Constitution at such a critical point, but some would want to try.
Bloomberg may not run, but if he does, it will be an interesting ride.