Well, I've been Clinton supporter and Obama was my least favorite of the three front runners all year. I've been pretty much convinced that Clinton would be both the nominee and the next President and that even an Iowa loss would not change that. But several things have happened this week to change my mind.
Now I am never one to jump on bandwagons, and I am not a fair weather fan. And I believe that any of the our candidates would make fine Presidents. I'm not really buying that Mr. Obama can arrive in Washington and make "change" happen as easily as some seem to be hoping, but I have had some serious doubts raised about the Clinton campaign and have also witnessed some reaction from people around me to make me willing to consider the Obama candidacy and revisit a few notions I've had in my head. Below I explain what I am seeing and sensing.
1: Thursday Night: Everybody loves a winner and it's hard to resist the pull of a winning team, but what I saw on Thursday night was much more than just a good speech by the winner. I saw an arousing emotional speech, just like everyone else. But for me, someone who is focused on the skills each campaign is demonstrating, I also saw some pretty impressive staging by the Obama people and some very bad staging by the Clinton people. Clinton was poised, and as far as concessions go, her speech was fine. But what was disturbing to me was the backdrop. I don't know what they were thinking surrounding Clinton with throwbacks from the 1990's. Albright, Clark and a very tired looking Bill Clinton? No, Mrs. Clinton, this is not what the country is looking for. And then - on comes Obama. His team set the stage perfectly - it highlighted Obama and on TV you saw a bright young figure with a backdrop of young fresh faces. This setting combined with the brilliant speech was masterful. This is the kind of skill I want to see demonstrated by a candidate before they are the nominee. Well done.
2:My interactions with young people: I'm 36 years old but I run a business that brings me into contact with many people in their 20's. Up until this week, I hadn't really discussed politics with them since I try to limit political discussion at the work place, but this week it did come up after the Iowas votes. What I found was that the mention of Clinton, while it didn't bring about harsh negative reaction, usually brought no more than a shrug and a "meh". Mention of Mr. Obama however brought about smiles and excitement. When I pressed for reasons, they said they saw in Obama a way to step away from the divisions of the past, a candidate who spoke their language and a vague sense that he represents something new, something that we haven't tried before. When I combine the reactions I am seeing in my personal conversation with the turnout in Iowa and the backdrop of young people behind Mr. Obama, I see where my younger friends are going, and I see that if Clinton were the nominee these young people might very well sit it out or seek out a third party alternative. She is to them simply more of the same.
3: The failure of Clinton to create an emotional bond with voters. I have felt for several years that people do not vote on reason - they vote based on emotion. This has explained to me the failures of both Kerry and Gore to win resounding victories despite the fact that majorities of people shared their views and not the views of George Bush. Bush, for whatever else one can say actually did create an emotional reaction in people while Kerry and Gore ran campaigns that were focused on telling people what programs and policies they would pursue. And now I see Mrs Clinton running the same kind of campaign. She is very good at explaining her proposals and policy prescriptions, but she is not so good at creating an emotional bond with people. I thought that she would evoke and emotional bond with women, but it seems that the pull of the first female President is not compelling enough on its own to build the strong emotions a presidential candidate needs to win. Mr Obama on the other hand obviously does. Heading into another GE campaign with a competent yet uninspired candidate make me very wary. Very.
At this point I expect Obama to win New Hampshire and South Carolina and that the remainder of January will be a contest between the underdog Clinton vs the front runner Obama. Clinton still has a chance, but the window is closing on her quickly. I personally still have deep reservations about the substance of Obama's campaign and I worry about whether the America I know is ready to vote for a minority candidate like Mr Obama. I worry about his vetting and what surprises and old things in his record will come to light once he is the nominee. I also continue believe that Mrs Clinton has been treated very harshly at this site and a lot of the criticism of her here has been unfair and over the top, and I still hold her in high regard and want to defend her against untruths and distortions.
Having said all that, I will finish by saying that I think our party would be well served if all three frontrunners continue to be viable and stay in the race through Feb 5th. Obama needs more testing and a win in Tuesday should not be the end. There is too much at stake to let any of these candidates take the nomination yet. But once someone does, I will be very excited and ready to do what I can to help. Should the majority choose Obama, then I will not spend a minute sulking about it. I will be there to help bring him to victory in November and help put the nightmare of the last 8 years behind us.
This is a very exciting race and all the candidates make me proud. Here's to having an open mind.