It is the most dramatic comeback victory I've ever witnessed in years of observing American politics. Not one single poll had Hillary ahead or even within the margin of error. Obama hit the numbers predicted by the polls (which indicates no Wilder effect), but she won anyway. She has not only revitalized her campaign, she is now poised to take command of this race at the end of February 5th. My vote in CA will count after all, and I will cast it for her. There were so many factors in her stunning victory, but here are a few.
- It's the economy Stupid!! Hillary was the only candidate in Saturday's debate who mentioned the economy and had the guts to say that we are headed into recession. When Democrats feel stressed about the economy, the only people they trust are the Clintons, because of their track record of getting things done in the 90's. She has tapped into an issue in a way that revitalizes the value of experience in a President.
- Dominating the Media - From her graceful debate performance, to her town hall style Q&A sessions to her emotional moment in a diner to Bill Clinton's aggressive campaigning, Hillary dominated the news coverage. She broke through the negative characterization of her as cold, corporate, calculating that was foisted by John Edwards and the Media. She showed she was human, likeable and as much a change agent as anyone in this race.
- Barack Obama - Obama went into hiding and did not make much of an impact in Saturday's debate or in the 3 days afterwards. In the debate, a great answer on Iraq and Pakistan was overshadowed by a rude remark aimed at Hillary that struck many as arrogant. He played like he had the lead and he blew it. Obama isn't making enough of an appeal to traditional Democrats on issues they care about: the economy, jobs, Iraq, health care. She is. He cares about unity, and I'm not sure a lot of Democrats want to be unified with Republicans. Republicans are the problem, not the solution. They just voted for a guy who wants to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years; in other words, Republicans are insane. Let sane Republicans come to us as so many have over the past 4 years. That said, Obama did get over 100,000 votes, so he proved that he is a very credible candidate capable of competing anywhere, and that there is merit in his overall strategy.
- Women - Women responded to Clinton's passion, energy and the tireless way she pursued victory in spite of (or perhaps because of) a lot of negative Media coverage and negative coverage on the blogs.
- John Edwards - Edwards was more interested in picking on Hillary than winning. His response to Hillary's emotional moment rang to me (and others) as sexist. He was negative, mean-spirited, and self-righteous and paid the price with a backlash among female voters in favor of Hillary. She received nearly 2.5 times as many votes as Edwards. As an HRC supporter, I personally thank John Edwards for one of the most foolish campaign strategies ever. Instead of grasping that Obama is his chief rival, he went after Hillary. You can't have two anti-establishment/pro-change candidates and those voters chose Obama over Edwards. I thank him for overplaying his hand, but I am also personally glad to see him recede into irrelevancy. Many average, working class Edwards supporters who care about the economy will support Hillary. The pro-Edwards bloggers, however, are pretty anti-Hillary and I wouldn't be surprised if those people didn't vote for her in the General Election. It's ok. She won't need their votes to win.
- Bloggers - The blogging community went crazy the last few days with the anti-Hillary kool-aid. As one example, those bloggers who claimed that she demeaned MLK in some remarks were intellectually dishonest. It made a lot of us who like Hillary feel very angry at those Democrats who were attempting to launch the type of smear attack we expect from Rush Limbaugh. These issues were not lost on late deciders who really felt that everyone had ganged up on her.
- Registered Democrats: More registered Democrats turned out as a percentage of the total votes cast as compared with IA. Registered Dems have consistently favored HRC over Obama in polling, and that explains her numerical victory as much as anything. The polls overestimated the number of Indies and new voters, and underestimated the number of registered Dems as a percentage of the total. They probably got carried away by what happened in IA.
Keep in mind this was a close race. Both candidates got over 100,000 and lapped the GOP field. Both candidates got their voters to the polls. Hillary had an edge because she won late-deciders through good old fashioned hard work.