In a new poll, Survey USA gives Clinton a 56% to 29% lead over Obama in New York, with Edwards trailing at 8%. The lead has shrunk a bit since Iowa, but is still around the 30 point mark that it's been since Clinton entered the race.
New York State Democratic Primary: Clinton 27 Points Atop Obama -- In a Democratic Primary in New York state today, 01/11/08, 25 days to the 02/05/08 vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 2:1, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for 7 NY state media outlets. Among all likely Democratic Primary voters, which in NY does not include Independents, it's Clinton 56%, Obama 29%. Clinton leads by 8 points among men, leads by 43 points among women. Clinton leads by 36 points among whites. Obama leads by 9 among blacks. Clinton leads 3:1 among seniors. Clinton leads by 21 in New York City, leads by 32 in the suburbs of NYC, leads by 37 Upstate. 31% of Democrats say they may change their mind before 02/05/08. Among those who say their mind is made up, Clinton is up 33 points.
New York has a closed primary, which means only Democrats will be able to participate. It's also partially proportional, with state leaders assigning the remaining delegates:
New York Democrats have a total of 281 delegates, 151 of whom are elected proportionally based on the results of the Feb. 5 primary within each congressional district. In addition, 45 are automatic and chosen from party leaders. At a state Democratic committee meeting in May, the remaining 85 delegates are selected.
Clinton will likely win the vast majority, if not all, of the non-proportionate delegates:
While the committee is prohibited from endorsing candidates before the primaries, the chairwoman of the New York State Democratic Party, June O'Neill, and her co-chairman, David Pollack, have personally endorsed Ms. Clinton.
Illinois has a total of 185 delegates to award, which means Clinton should win the 2/5 home state battle handily.
On the Republican side, Rudy's lead against McCain in NY has dwindled to 32%-29%. Uncommitted is tied with Huckabee for third. McCain didn't break 15% in any of three December polls.
To close, here is a list of some of Clinton's NY endorsements, courtesy of Norwegian Chef:
Senator Charles Schumer
Congressman Gary Ackerman
Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke
Congressman Michael Arcuri
Congressman Tim Bishop
Congressman Joseph Crowley
Congressman Eliot Engel
Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand
Congressman John Hall
Congressman Brian Higgins
Congressman Maurice Hinchey
Congressman Steve Israel
Congresswoman Nita M. Lowey
Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney
Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy
Congressman Michael McNulty
Congressman Gregory Meeks
Congressman Jerrold Nadler
Congressman Frank Pallone
Congressman Charlie Rangel
Congressman Jose Serrano
Congresswoman Louise Slaughter
Congressman Edolphus Towns
Congresswoman Nydia M. Velazquez
Congressman Anthony Weiner
Governor Elliot Spitzer
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo
Mayor of Buffalo Byron Brown
Mayor of Syracuse Matt Driscoll
Mayor of Albany Jerry Jennings
Mayor of Rochester Robert Duffy
Mayor of Jamestown Sam Teresi
Mayor of Hempstead Wayne Hall
Mayor of Fulton Darryl Hayden
Mayor of Mount Vernon Ernie Davis
Mayor of New Rochelle Noam Bramson
Mayor of Oswego Randy Bateman
Mayor of Patchogue Paul Pontieri
Mayor of Canandaigua Ellen Polimeni
Mayor of Hornell Shawn Hogan
Mayor of Waterloo Ted Young
Mayor of Schenectady Brian Stratton
Mayor of Saratoga Springs Valerie Keehn
Mayor of Glens Falls LeRoy Akins
Mayor of Kingston James Sottile
Mayor of Poughkeepsie, Nancy Cozean
Mayor of Cohoes John McDonald
Mayor of Waterlivet Robert Carlson
Mayor of Green Island Ellen McNulty-Ryan
Mayor of Middletown Marlinda Duncanson
Mayor of Oneonta John Nader
Former Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro
Former New York City Mayor David Dinkins