After Clinton’s Nevada win, the delegate count (minus Superdelgates and Michigan), is tied. Regardless of what the media (and most high-profile bloggers) tells us, this contest is nowhere near decided. Clinton enjoys the backing of the Democratic Party Establishment in most states, which allows her to use their GOTV operations. Obama has to build his GOTV organization with grassroot support. So, how does Obama still win the nomination?
- Run his race – It does Obama no good to get involved in the Clintons’ negative campaign.
- Counter Media Narrative – Obama’s campaign needs to remind the media that the race is tied. He needs to get more aggressive about getting airtime for his spokespeople. Right now, Clinton’s allies are dominating the media narrative.
- Win South Carolina convincingly – This has become a delegate race and Obama needs to win by a significant margin in SC to have the lead going into Super Tuesday.
- Super Tuesday – pt 1 – Capitalize on Obama’s African-American support to win convincingly in the following states: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.
- Super Tuesday – pt 2 – Win caucus states where Obama has built a strong organization: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota.
- Super Tuesday – pt 3 – Don’t count out Arkansas, New Jersey and New York. While Obama isn’t going to win either state, his strong support among the younger generation and African-Americans should help him keep the race close. If he can finish within 15% of Clinton in these 3 states, the delegate count will be close.
- Super Tuesday – pt 4 – Don’t waste time in Arizona or New Mexico. Clinton will win both convincingly. Spend money on ads, but consider these states lost.
- Super Tuesday – pt 5 – Spend time in Massachusetts and California. Clinton leads here, but Obama appearances could keep it close. Obama has the backing of local politicians who have strong GOTV operations and has a lot of grassroots support in these states.
- Super Tuesday – pt 6 – Abandon Oklahoma to Edwards. Edwards helps, not hurts, Obama’s chances at winning the nomination.
Obama can come out of Super Tuesday with enough delegates to either take the lead or be a close second. If that happens, Obama will be favored to win the nomination, as the remainder of the states appear to be more favorable to Obama.
[Update] - No longer a tied race. Obama is ahead by 2 in delegate count.