Now the game of expectations...
It seems that most folks have already concluded that Obama will win South Carolina. Therefore, if Obama wins, has he really won?
No doubt, the Clinton Machine did a good job of lowering expectations in both New Hampshire and Nevada. So when Hillary won by just a few points, it seemed like a big deal.
So to be fair, it seems that if Obama wins SC by the same margin that Hillary won NH/NV, then Obama should receive the same positive headlines. After all, a win is a win is a win. Futhermore, if Obama wins South Carolina, he'll expand his lead on pledged delegates.
My guess is Obama will win South Carolina by 5 points, and that'll be just enough to give him good headlines across the country. I think this bump will keep Obama competitive going into Super Tuesday and beyond.
The other big question is whether or not Edwards will be viable if he doesn't win South Carolina. He had based his whole strategy on the early states, and if he goes 0-for-4, it seems unlikely that he'll win any states. I doubt Edwards will drop out before Super Tuesday, but other than maybe Oklahoma, I'm not sure what state he can realistically win if he loses South Carolina tonight.
Just for fun, I've made my predictions. There's no science behind this, and I'll probably have different predictions tomorrow. (The states are sorted by delegate size.)
What are your thoughts? Any polls or personal anecdotes as to why you think your preferred candidate will win your state? Keep in mind that these primaries are proportional, so even if Hillary wins California, Obama can still pick up a huge chunk of delegates.
SUPER TUESDAY
California - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Illinois - Obama
New Jersey - Clinton
Massachusetts - Obama
Georgia - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Tennessee - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Arizona - Clinton
Connecticut - Clinton
Alabama - Obama
Arkansas - Clinton
Oklahoma - Edwards
Kansas - Obama
New Mexico - Clinton
Utah - Clinton
Delaware - Clinton
Idaho - Obama
North Dakota - Obama
Alaska - Cinton
9-Feb
Washington - Obama
Louisiana - Obama
Nebraska - Obama
10-Feb
Maine - Clinton
12-Feb
Virginia - Obama
Maryland - Obama
District of Columbia - Obama
19-Feb
Wisconsin - Obama
Hawaii - Obama
4-Mar
Texas - Obama
Ohio - Clinton
Rhode Island - Obama
Vermont - Obama
8-Mar
Wyoming - Clinton
11-Mar
Mississippi - Obama
22-Apr
Pennsylvania - Obama
6-May
North Carolina - Obama
6-May
Indiana - Obama
13-May
West Virginia - Clinton
20-May
Oregon - Obama
Kentucky - Clinton
3-Jun
Montana - Obama
South Dakota - Obama