The GOP retirements in the House just keep coming, it seems, though in this case, it's more that the retiree is looking to move up: Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof will retire to run for Governor:
Rep. Kenny Hulshof , R-Mo., has announced plans to retire from Congress at the end of his term in order to seek the GOP nomination to succeed Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt .
Hulshof announced plans to run for governor in hopes of keeping the state house in Republican hands. Blunt is not seeking re-election. "We need a state government that knows its place, does its job well, and then gets out of the way of the American spirit," Hulshof said. "Missourians reject blind partisanship, and they are demanding new ideas and innovative leadership," he added.
Blunt, the son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt , R-Mo., has been hampered by mediocre approval ratings. He had been polling poorly against Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon, who was prepared to challenge him and now becomes the Democrats’ leading contender.
Like seemingly every Republican in DC, Hulshof has been looking to get out of Washington for a while; last year he placed his name in contention for a position as President of the University of Missouri.
Hulshof is joining a crowded Republican primary which already includes two Republicans previously elected statewide, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.
So on the bright side, there will certainly be a primary brawl on the GOP side.
Hulshof's announcement leaves an open seat in MO-09, a district with a Republican bent of R+6.5. It would be pretty inhospitable territory for Democrats under normal circumstances, but an open seat in 2008 hardly qualifies as "normal circumstances".
Our current candidate is State Rep. Judy Baker, who had already planned to run against Hulshof. With Hulshof's departure, however, it's rumored that several other Democratic heavyweights may jump into the race: subscription-only Roll Call speculates about former Lieutenant Governor Joe Maxwell and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, while the Columbia Tribune suggests state Sen. Wes Shoemyer may jump in, in addition to Maxwell. As of now, only Baker is in, so we'll have to see how things shake out.
With luck, though, it will be yet another competitive district out of dozens upon dozens in 2008.
Hulshof's entry into the Governor's race muddies the GOP primary, as previously mentioned. While Hulshof won't be directly tied to the Matt Blunt administration, as Kinder certainly will, he can certainly be painted as a reliable vote for Bush and the Republican failures of the past, having voted the party line 93% of the time while in Congress. He'll also suffer from a name-recognition disadvantage, as both his primary opponents (as well as the prospective Democrats) have been elected statewide before.
Per Swing State Project, it appears Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will not challenge Nixon in the primary on our side, which is fine news.
With a three-way Republican primary, things look fairly good for us right now in the Governor's race, with Nixon having a head start campaigning and fundraising, and with the Republican brand name tarnished from Bush and Blunt. But given Missouri's recent history in statewide (and presidential) races, I doubt this race is going to be a cakewalk for anybody:
MO-Pres, 2000: Bush (R) 51, Gore (D) 47
MO-Gov, 2000: Holden (D) 50, Talent (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2000: Carnahan (D) 51, Ashcroft (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2002: Talent (R) 50, Carnahan (D) 49
MO-Pres, 2004: Bush (R) 53, Kerry (D) 46
MO-Gov, 2004: Blunt (R) 51, McCaskill (D) 48
MO-Sen, 2004: Bond (R) 56, Farmer (D) 43
MO-Sen, 2006: McCaskill (D) 50, Talent (R) 47
I think it's fair to expect a close race, both for Missouri's governorship, and for its 11 electoral votes.