Before the South Carolina primary I was skeptical that it would have much impact on the February 5th States. We now have enough data to test how big of a bounce Obama is getting out of South Carolina.
The table below compares polling in States taken the week before South Carolina with polls taken after both the South Carolina primary and the Kennedy endorsement.
A word of caution here: In many of these instances I am comparing polls from different organizations. Where there were multiple polls last week I took the average.
If you take out Tennessee (which is likely the product of different polling organizations the average swing out of South Carolina in State Polling since South Carolina is 15.7% - close to the 18% swing that Iowa usually creates in New Hampshire. On the other hand, I may be overstating the swing in California.
In both Georgia and Alabama the pollsters have noted that much of Obama's bounce is due to the consolidation of the African American vote. This appears to be less of a factor in the Northeast. It is here where the Kennedy endoresement may have already paid dividends.
Rassmussen indicated in the release of its most recent numbers that Tuesday night's results showed the race "essentially even". If we assume that means a tie, then Rassmussen's swing would be 12 points which would be close to the average we have seen in the states.
With Edward's departure, the race for the nomination appears to be close, and VERY fluid.