One of the important lessons of the last 50 years has been the successful ability of a political party to unite the major factions of primary base voters who often compete for conservative, moderate or liberal factions within a political party in selecting a Presidential nominee.
While investigating this hypothesis by reviewing the presidential and vice presidential nominees of both parties in recent times, I became aware that some of the most dramatic victories and defeats have generally come from a party willing to represent and unite those competing "factions" by nominating someone who appeals to a wide swath of competing voters within a party by choosing a strategic V.P. running mate.
To know thine enemy, so to speak, might be of a service or least an intersting read as I speculate, and perhaps too simplisticly, of the success and failures of political parties in uniting, healing and coelescing around a Presidential ticket that could bring Democratic voters together and attract Independents, Republicans and new or disenfranchised voters into a November Democratic victory.
The electoral college is a major factor in the selection of a balanced President/ Vice President ticket. And while there are always exceptions to the rule, generally speaking, the addition of a large electoral (populous) state V.P. candidate to a ticket can enhance the victory of a contest. The sectionalism of Northern and Eastern Liberals, Southern conservatives, Western and Mid-western moderates with West coast liberals, poses a challenging dilemma for candidates and advisors strategizing an effective Democratic ticket competing for Electoral college votes.
1960
John Kennedy from liberal Massachusetts and moderate Lyndon Johnson from conservative Texas defeated Republicans Nixon/ Lodge in a close election. Remember that blue is Republican and red is Democrat. Dixiecrats Byrd and Thurmond ran a third party campaign that captured all electoral votes in Mississippi, 6 in Alabama and 1 in Oklahoma.
1964
Led By conservative idealogue Barry Goldwater, the Republican Party was badly divided in 1964 between its conservative and moderate-liberal factions. Former Vice-President Richard Nixon, who had been beaten by Kennedy in the extremely close 1960 presidential election decided not to run. Nixon, a moderate with ties to both wings of the GOP, had been able to unite the liberal/conservative factions of the Republican party in 1960. He lost a close general election to Kennedy Johnson. (Liberal Moderate, North/South coalition)
The lessons of 1964 for the Republicans, 1972 and 1984 for the Democrats was that if either the conservative wing or Liberal wing of either party seizes ideological power without compromise to the other competing voting blocks within the party, then landlide victories of the other party occur.
Johnson/ Humphrey a coalition of Minnesota liberal and Texas moderate delivered one of the largest Democratic landslide victories in the history of Presidential politics against conservatives Goldwater/ Miller.
1968
Nixon/ Agnew vs. Humphrey/ Muskie was a contest between northern liberals and Republican moderates. While a lot of people will challenge the notion of Nixon or Agnew as being anything but conservative, segregationist Govenor from Alabama, George Wallace ran and captured the conservative "Goldwater states" of the deep south as an Independent.
Nelson Rockefeller represented the liberals in the GOP, Reagan represented the conservative Goldwaterites, and Nixon represented the moderates. Nixon was clearly the front runner throughout the contest because of his superior organization and he easily defeated both Reagan and Rockefeller in the GOP primary. He selected Rockefeller protege Spiro Agnew who resigned in scandal and won with moderate Gerald Ford in 1972.
1972
One of the ugliest defeats for the Democrats was 1972. Mcgovern/ Shriver were liberals from South Dakota and Maryland. Nixon and Agnew were from California and Maryland. All that blue is Republican. Only D.C. and Massachusetts went Dem. Yechh...I hope that never happens again. Nixon, proclaiming that peace was at hand in Vietnam because of his policies, ridiculed McGovern as the radical candidate of "acid, amnesty, and abortion." the age of dirty politics had arrived. Later Agnew resigned in 1973 and Gerald Ford from Michigan was appointed Vice President.
1976
In 1976, Moderate and Born Again Christian Jimmy Carter from Georgia teamed with Liberal northern Walter Mondale to win the Presidency from Ford/Dole. Carter was the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to carry the states of the Deep South, and the first since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to carry an unquestionable majority of southern states.
1980
As I said earlier, there are always exceptions to the rules... sorta. (Red is now Republican and blue is Democrat) Reagan/ Bush were conservative/ moderate, East and West (and transplant Texan) against the Carter/ Mondale incumbency. Former Governor Ronald Reagan was the odds-on favorite to win his party's nomination for president (after nearly beating incumbent President Gerald Ford just four years earlier). He was so far ahead in the polls and Jimmy Carter was burdened by a continued weak economy and the Iran hostage crisis. Inflation, high interest rates, and unemployment continued through the course of the campaign, and the ongoing hostage crisis in Iran became, to many, a symbol of American impotence during the Carter years.
Jerry Falwell's Moral Majority lobbying group is credited with giving Reagan two-thirds of the white, evangelical vote. It was the beginning of the Christian Coalition that has shaped modern American politics since.
1984
Walter Mondale of Minnesota and Geraldine Ferraro of New York ran as Liberals against Reagan / Bush. Reagan won a record 525 electoral votes total (of 538 possible), and received nearly 60 percent of the popular vote. Mondale's defeat was also the worst for any Democratic Party candidate in U.S. history in the Electoral College.
The term "Reagan Democrats" was coined in reference to the millions of Democrats who voted for Reagan. Reagan Democrats were a mix of southern whites and northern blue collar workers who voted for Reagan because they credited him as strong on national security issues and perceived the Democrats as supporting the poor at the expense of the middle class.
My eyes are bleeding Red... and we start to see that Democratic V.P.'s do not carry the vote in their respective states for the next 2 elections.
1988
Vice President George Bush chose conservative Dan Quayle to win the 1988 Presidential election against Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and Lloyd Bentsen of Texas.
George H.W. Bush's relatively big win gave the Republican Party its third consecutive presidential win. Reagan's popularity and Bush's position as Vice President did more to help his cause than any great dissatisfaction with Dukakis. Even though the Democrats may have lost their presidential bid they were able to strengthen their majorities in Congress.
1992
"Read my lips ... No new taxes." President Bush was attempting to downplay the effects of a mild recession, dissatisfaction by conservatives, and the entry of conservative third party candidate Ross Perot who siphoned crucial moderate and conservative votes from Bush. As the incumbant President who invaded Iraq and stopped short of Baghdad and was taunted with, "It's the economy stupid" catchphrase, He lost to the Southern moderate/ Liberal Duo of Bill Clinton and Al Gore.
Perot, in gaining a higher percentage of the popular vote than any third-party presidential candidate in 80 years, allowed Clinton/ Gore to win with the smallest majority 43% to 37.4% to 19%.
1996
Ross Perot again played a role in the defeat of Republicans with Bob Dole from Kansas and Jack Kemp from New York
Clinton carried just four of the eleven states of the American South, tying his 1992 run for the worst performance by a winning Democratic presidential candidate in the region (in terms of states won). Clinton's performance seems to have been part of a broader decline in support for the Democratic Party in the South. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, the Democrats would fail to carry even one of the Southern states, contributing to their defeat both times. This completed the Republican takeover of the American South, a region in which Democrats had held a near monopoly from 1880 to 1960. This was the last election in which a 3rd party candidate carried over 3% of the national popular vote.
2000
Of course the election of 2000 was a heartbreaker for Democrats. Deeply polarized, the nation watched as Gore/ Leiberman won the popular vote 51,003,926 - 48.4% to 50,460,110 - 47.9% for Bush/ Cheney. The drama of impeachment, the recount of Florida, the overide of the the Supreme Court, the continued rise of the Christian right wing and the run of Green party Ralph Nader who siphoned off enough would-be Gore votes to throw the election to Bush was enough to win the election for Bush/ Cheney. Gore was the first major-party presidential candidate to have lost his home state since George McGovern lost South Dakota in 1972.
2004
John Kerry and John Edwards ran as a Liberal/ Moderate and North/South ticket against Bush Cheney in 2004. (Note the one electoral vote cast in Minnesota for John Edwards.) John Edwards did not carry his home state of North Carolina. The Southern strategy of the Democrats finally collapsed in 2004.
Howard Dean set out to build a 50 state strategy as a response to the shift in demographics in America.
Although Bush received a majority of the popular vote: 50.73% to Kerry's 48.27%, it was, in percentages, the closest popular margin ever for a victorious sitting President. Bush received 2.5% more than Kerry; the closest previous margin won by a sitting President was 3.2% for Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Bush's victory margin (approximately 3 million votes) was the smallest of any sitting President since Harry S. Truman in 1948.
2008
Here is a map of projected Battleground States for the election of 2008.
It seems that there are other states emerging in the upcoming election. Montana? North Carolina? Georgia?
If John McCain of Arizona is the Republican nominee, it is apparent that a religious conservative would be needed to unite the Republican Party. Who do you think that will be? Romney? Sam Brownback? James Dobson?
Obviously there are many nuances that go into the selection of a nominee and his/her running mate. 2008 will be another momentous year for Democrats. I don't have any clear analysis for the charts and history that I have presented in this diary. I've spent the weekend writing this and I'm done! If you want to comment on a trend you might see or I have overlooked then type it up in the comments.
Does a Progressive Obama choose a moderate Governor Janet Napolitano from Arizona or Phil Bredesen from Tennesee or Schweitzer from Montana or Tim Kaine of Virginia? Perhaps Diane Feinstein, Hillary Clinton or Kathleen Sebelius from Kansas?
Does a moderate Hillary choose John Edwards or Bill Richardson or Obama ?
Perhaps Governor Easley of North Carolina or Governor Henry of Oklahoma?
George Bush chose the CEO of Haliburton.
Tell me...what do you think?