Despite all the well-deserved talk about Barack Obama's pull with younger voters, it is surprising how little attention has been paid to his relative lack of appeal with older voters. This is a particularly meaningful omission given how much the aging of America's population weighs on the near future of just about every major program managed by the federal government, most notably Social Security and Medicare.
Given this demographic fact--which occupied so much of our attention during George W. Bush's tenure--it may come as a surprise that Barack Obama is significantly behind Hillary Clinton with voters aged 65 and older.
This pattern was particularly clear in the exit polling conducted on Super Tuesday. According to the polling data for 16 of the 24 Super Tuesday states, as made public by CNN, Obama did not carry the 65 and older vote in a single state. His best turnout in this category was a 48%-48% tie with Clinton in Illinois--Obama's home state. The opposite is also true. Obama trounced Clinton with voters 18-24 in just about every Super Tuesday state.
The key factor in these numbers, however, is the percentage of the overall vote represented by the two age categories. Here again, Super Tuesday revealed a pattern. In the overall turnout for Democrats, the 18-24 age group typically made up only 7%-8% of the overall vote, while the 65 and over age group typically made up 20%-22% of the vote.
While the Obama campaign and the media push a narrative about a youth movement driving the election, that may not be the case after all. It seems just as reasonable to conclude that the youth movement--while important and inspiring--is being overshadowed statistically by a senior moment several times larger.
But if this trend is so easy to figure out by looking at a few exit polls, why is it so under reported by the media?
The answer may be that the big media newsrooms covering the 2008 primary season would rather keep reporting the Obama campaign's undeniably infectious message of 'hope and change,' than put their noses to the grindstone on the more onerous policy proposals that speak to concerns of senior citizens.
Why should reporters write about the liquidity of the Social Security trust, prescription drug plans, Medicare co-payment proposals, and predatory lending safeguards when they can just repost a YouTube video by Will.I.Am (it's a great video--I like it, too)?
Why should reporters do hard research on the mounting financial fears amongst seniors needing long-term hospice, assisted living, and independent living when they can run a story about the Super Bowl ad the Obama campaign ran.
And why should reporters go into the field and interview seniors citizens--asking them about their hopes and the things they want changed--when they can continue to run the same handful of stories about a candidate who is shaking up America by appealing to young voters.
Barack Obama's appeal amongst young voters is an inspiring story. It is a long overdue and heartfelt story welcome amongst all but the most cynical of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum. The media has done a great job reporting it.
But America's seniors also have a story to tell that is of central importance to this election season. And its high time the media started reporting it.
(cross posted from Frameshop)