The eyes of the blogosphere, the nation and much of the world are turning to Hawaii as the Tuesday caucuses approach. I*n addition to stringers for national media, there are television crews arriving from Asian and European networks. Indeed, "the whole world is watching."
It is difficult for the local Democratic Party to predict the turnout. A few months ago, in the planning for the caucuses, they were assuming the turn out would be double the 2004 turnout. Meeting locations were reserved based upon what seemed to be a reasonable estimate at the time.
[The diary continues after the jump, where I will make my predictions of the Hawaii results.]
Planning for the Hawaii caucuses was done before any votes were cast in Iowa or New Hampshire. Andy Winer is a frequent blogger on this site and can speak for the Hawaii Obama campaign, but from my perspective, I would say that NOBODY anticipated how close the nomination battle would be at this point or anticipated the nationwide outpouring of enthusiasm for Barack Obama. Certainly after the smoke cleared on Super Tuesday, Hawaii Dems are belatedly becoming aware that a tsunami is heading our way.
When you observe the growing nationwide momentum for Obama and ADD to that the extensive ties Obama has in Hawaii from growing up in Hawaii and attending Punahou School, you have the conditions for a "perfect storm."
Our precinct caucus meetings will be OVERWHELMED by the turnout on Tuesday.
When I saw that Andy was sending out a final message to the Obama supporters, I was hoping that he would send a message that was both "rousing" for the base, while preparing them for the crowded conditions and urging them to internalize aloha. Frankly, it is time for the Hawaii Obama supporters to make the transition to "gracious winners."
Here are my projections for Hawaii's pledged delegates:
Hawaii has two congressional districts:
CD 1 is "Urban Honolulu," which has 6 pledge delegate slots to be allocated proportionate to votes cast in tomorrow's caucuses.
I assume Obama will win 4, Clinton will win 2.
CD 2 is "Rural Oahu" and the "neighbor islands" of Kauai, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and the "Big Island," also named "Hawaii". CD 2 has 7 national delegates.
I assume Obama will win 4 or 5 of these delegates. Clinton will win 2 or 3.
NOTE: the Clinton campaign believes they will do better in the 2nd CD. I have a "pull-pay" wager over this with State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, the head of the Hawaii Clinton campaign. She doubts that Obama will get 4 delegates in the 2nd CD. (Yes, we did interlock pinkie fingers in making this bet, in authentic local style.)
Hawaii has 3 PLEO slots at stake. This one is easy: Obama will win 2, Clinton will win one.
Hawaii has 4 "at-large" delegates, allotted according to the statewide vote. I am expecting a two to one vote for Obama over Clinton statewide, so it is a question if Obama's margin will rise to the level of winning 3 of the four delegates, or will each campaign win 2 at-large delegates each? I predict Obama will win 3 of the 4 at-large delegates, though acknowledge it is possible the split will go 2-2.
Of the 20 pledged delegates "up for grabs" based upon the caucus votes, I predict Obama will win 12 to 14. Clinton will win from 6 to 8 delegates.
Hawaii has 9 superdelegates. Our superdelegates include US Senators Inouye and Akaka, Congress members, Neil Abercrombie and Mazie Hirono, outgoing National Committee members Richard Port and Dolly Strazar and the incoming party chair and vice-chair, to be elected at the late May Hawaii Democratic State Convention. We also have an "unpledged add-on" superdelegate, to be selected at the first SCC meeting held immediately after the state convention.
I find myself disagreeing with my fellow progressives on the question of superdelegates, at least as regards the Hawaii superdelegates. I cannot justify the "add-on" superdelegate being allowed to disregard the caucus results, but I disagree that it is inherently "undemocratic" that the others be allowed to use their own best judgment in casting their votes. Inouye, Akaka, Hirono and Abercrombie all hold their positions as a result of being elected by a helluva lot more people than the number participating in our caucuses. It might be argued that they were elected by the general public rather than by party members, but all of these elected officials also won the Democratic Primary for their office--again with a "helluva lot more people" voting for them than will participate in the caucuses. So I do not dispute their right to use their best judgment in casting their votes. I HOPE they will factor into their decisions the caucus results. Inouye has committed to Clinton and will not budge. Abercrombie has committed to Obama and will not budge. Akaka and Hirono have heretofore not committed. I assume that the caucus results MAY influence their vote. Particularly, if the 2nd CD goes overwhelmingly for Obama, I expect Mazie Hirono will be affected by that vote. Akaka is harder to predict on this.
Hawaii's National Committeeman is firmly committed to Hillary Clinton and has said he will not budge. Our National Committeewoman has said she is neutral. I do not know her sympathies in this. I believe both DNC members will be voted out of their positions IF they chose to stand for re-election at the May state convention. Dolly Strazar might feel pressure to support Obama in an effort to increase her chances of re-election, but I am not in a position to guess how she will vote.
I think it is questionable to allow outgoing National Committee members to be superdelegates. I believe the positions should go to newly elected incoming DNC members, who would be more reflective of current sentiment in the Party. Changing this rule would help make the use of superdelegates more "democratic" than the current practice of awarding the delegate slots to the incumbent members.
The two remaining superdelegate slots, the incoming State Party Chair and Vice-Chair, will be decided at the state convention, to be held in late May. The chair will be directly elected by the state delegates, so their position, and national delegate credentials, cannot be rightfully called "undemocratic." (I hope that state delegates will NOT decide between competing state chair candidates based primarily upon their stated presidential preference. Please put the interests of the Party as a whole ahead of the marginal benefit of one nationa delegate slot to one of the campaigns.)
The Vice-Chair of the State Party will be selected by the newly elected State Central Committee which will convene in a special meeting early Sunday afternoon immediately after the adjournment of the May state convention.
The person to fill the final "add-on unpledged delegate" slot, a "superdelegate" slot, will also be selected at the special SCC meeting. I can see no justification for the add-on being a superdelegate. If Hawaii deserves a 29th delegate slot, it should be "pledged" and allocated according to the Caucus vote.
Because of all the uncertainty affecting the decisions of the superdelegates, I will not attempt to guess how the final Hawaii superdelegate votes will go.