Many people hate polls. Many people hate predictions. Those people will undoubtedly hate this diary. I know that a week is an eternity in politics. I know that everything can change between now and November. I also know that it is completely worth our time to consider how our candidates would fare in a general election matchup at this point.
There has been a lot of polling done in many of the "battleground" states so far that match up Hillary and Obama against John McCain. I’ve put together some snapshots of where we stand right now with each of our candidates complete with pretty, colorful maps and handy electoral vote estimates.
The first map is a matchup of Hillary vs. McCain. I’ve tried to be as fair as possible in my interpretation of these numbers considering that I caucused for Obama on the 9th. I realize that it is completely useless at this point to put a state in one column unless the difference is at least 5 points. A poll with a difference of 1 or 2 points this far away from the election doesn’t tell us a thing. First of all, the red states are states that either voted for Bush in 2004 by at least 5 points, or where McCain is leading in the latest head to head polling by a margin of at least 5 points. The pink states are states where the difference between the two candidates is less than 5 points. The blue states are states that either have Hillary ahead by at least 5 points, or that voted for Kerry in 2004 by at least 5 points. Even though Michigan only went for Kerry by 3%, I’ve decided to keep it blue because both the Governor and Senate race in 2006 were won by Democrats with over 57% of the vote. I’ve also decided to give Arkansas to Hillary simply because of her roots there. Here is your snapshot electoral map of this matchup...
John McCain would go into this race with a strong electoral advantage over Hillary Clinton mainly because polls taken in the last few days suggest he has a fair lead in Minnesota (+5), Florida (+6), Wisconsin (+7), Nevada (+9), and Colorado (+14). McCain and Hillary in Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are separated by 4 points or less. If you count only the states with at least a 5 point margin for either candidate, Hillary initially gets 195 electoral votes while McCain gets 250. Let’s continue...
The second map is of a matchup between Obama and McCain. The same "at least 5 points" rule applies. I’ve decided to give Michigan to Obama for same reasons I gave it to Hillary and decided not give him Arkansas. Here is the snapshot...
This time, Obama is the one who would go in with a strong advantage over McCain due to polls taken within the last few days that show him with hefty leads in Colorado (+7), Oregon (+9), Wisconsin (+10), Pennsylvania (+10), Nevada (+12), New Hampshire (+13), Washington (+17), and Iowa (+17). The margin is below 5 points in Missouri and Ohio. What is interesting about this snapshot is that if Obama were to win every state he leads in by 1 point and McCain was able to win all three tossup states – Ohio, Missouri, and New Mexico, Obama would still have enough electoral votes to win. 270 is all that is required and at this point he would get enough based on his big leads in battleground states and other states that are reliably Democratic. Moving along...
My final picture is tally of who is currently favored in "battleground states". These are states that could switch sides depending on the campaign and who is nominated. They are also states that we have recent head to head polling for. It seems like Virginia, New Mexico, and possibly states like Montana could come into play but we have yet to see any polling done in those states. The check means that polling shows our candidate winning by at least 5 points. The X means polling shows our candidate losing by at least 5 points. The "?" means the difference is less than 5 points, and thus it’s not worthy of speculation...
When matched up against McCain, it is clear that Obama fares better in these states than Hillary Clinton. He is leading comfortably in 9 of the 12 states, is tied in 2, and is losing by a large margin in Florida. She does not have a lead in any of the states and is actually losing by 5 points or more in 5 of the 12 states.
What can we draw from all of this? First of all we have to keep in mind that there is a long way to go. Heck, we haven’t even gotten started. At any moment in any campaign, anything can happen. Hillary Clinton could make John McCain look like a fool in every debate and crush him in the Electoral College by sweeping the battleground states. That is entirely possible. Obama could stumble and come crashing down – we just don’t know. The fact that anything can happen does not mean, however, that it is not valuable to try to understand what the state of the race is today. It is extremely important for us to know what our chances are, and which matchup is most likely to bring us a win. Here’s the bottom line for me:
Going into this election, Hillary Clinton would have a lot more ground to make up than Barack Obama. She would probably have to fight a lot harder in a lot more places in order to win. Think of it as a foot race. If Obama faces McCain, Obama gets a head start. If Hillary faces McCain, he’s the one who gets to start out the race with a lead. It takes a lot more heartache and struggle to catch up than it does to expand on an already solid lead.
Here are the links to the polls...
Flordida: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Minnesota: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Wisconsin: http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Oregon: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Ohio: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Missouri: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Colorado: http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Washington: http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Nevada: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Iowa, New Hampshire: http://www.dailykos.com/...
UPDATE:
New Survey USA poll shows Obama beating McCain in Iowa by 10 points and in Virginia by 6 points.
McCain beats Hillary in Iowa by 11 points and in Virginia by 3 points.