First, the excellent news from Rasmussen.
MN-Sen 2/16 (10/31/07). 500 likely voters. MoE 4.5%
Coleman (R) 46% (49)
Franken (D) 49% (42)
Coleman (R) 47% (46)
Ciresi (D) 45% (43)
Franken's numbers have moved steadily up (in March he was at 36%) while Coleman's numbers are totally stalled against both Franken and Ciresi. This is damn good news.
The not excellent, but still good, news from Rasmussen:
OR-Sen. 2/13 (no trend lines). 500 likely voters. MoE 4.5%.
Smith (R) 48%
Merkley (D) 30%
Smith (R) 48%
Novick (D) 35%
Why is this good when Smith has double-digit leads over both his challengers? Because they both keep him under 50%. When an incumbent is under 50%, there's room to beat him, and in many election years, these results would make this a top-tier race. Only because there are so many incredibly strong races for Democrats does this look like a so-so result.
And some presidential head-to-heads for the general, from SurveyUSA.
Virginia. 2/15-17. 554 registered voters. MoE 4.2%
McCain 45%
Obama 51%
McCain 48%
Clinton 45%
Iowa. 2/15-17. 563 registered voters. MoE 4.2%
McCain 41%
Obama 51%
McCain 52%
Clinton 41%
These results continue to show Obama with greater strength in swing states, as SUSA's Wisconsin poll released yesterday did. In 2004, Bush narrowly edged Kerry in Iowa, an even closer Gore state in 2000. Virginia gave Bush more substantial but not insurmountable wins in both years. Its 13 electoral votes would be a huge Democratic pick-up.