:::OK, this is my first diary. I haven't yet learned all the Daily Kos terminology and ethics, and I definitely don't know the secret handshake. But here goes...:::
Based on tonight's election results, Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and endorse Barack Obama. There, I said it. I say this not just for the good of my favorite candidate (yes, it's Obama) but for the good of the Democratic Party and the progressive movement. All those who care more about a Democrat beating John McBush than about Hillary beating Obama or Obama beating Hillary should join me. My call for Hillary to drop out and endorse rests on three main arguments:
- Hillary can no longer win the nomination;
- Further protracting the primary will weaken our party for the general election;
- Hillary dropping out and endorsing will prevent any party-destroying, undemocratic shenanigans at the convention.
- Hillary should drop out and endorse Obama, because after the results tonight, she cannot win the nomination. Yes, I know it is still possible for her to win, just as it's possible for me to strike it rich on "Antiques Roadshow" (odds: 60,000 to 1). Obama now has a significant lead in overall delegates, and I see no credible scenario in which Hillary can overcome his lead. Look not just at the latest national polls (here's one) but also at the trend lines that these polls show: steadily increasing support for Obama and steadily decreasing support for Clinton (especially since February 5th). More importantly, look at Texas, one of Clinton's "must-win," "firewall" states. The Texas race is now a dead heat. Obama is steadily gaining in Texas, and he hasn't even begun to campaign there in earnest. As in most states so far, Clinton begins with a big lead, but as voters really start to pay attention, Obama gains and gains and gains (and usually wins). Also, Obama continues to win over voters from Hillary's key demographics (Latinos and females). Meanwhile I have seen nothing showing that Obama is losing votes from his key demographics (youth, African-Americans, affluent/college-educated Whites). I see nothing realistic that could reverse these trends for Hillary.
- Hillary should drop out and endorse Obama, because dragging out this fight, which she can no longer win, will hurt Democrats in November. It will hurt us not only against John "100-Years-Of-War, Torture's-OK-If-It-Gets-Me-The-Nomination" McCain, but it will also hurt us in congressional, state, and local races. The Democratic National Committee is running on fumes and is not likely to raise significant money until we have a nominee. (Meanwhile, the RNC has about $17 million. Oh, and they play dirty.) A weak DNC hurts the 50 State Strategy--a strategy that could nicely complement Obama's already-proven Red State appeal. Put simply, we Democrats are using our grassroots money right now to fight among ourselves, whereas Republicans are already consolidating money and organization against Democrats.
Also, the longer Hilary hangs in and the farther behind she falls, the nastier her campaign is likely to get. We've already seen "the black candidate" and the "doing something in the neighborhood" attacks. Now we are seeing Clinton's campaign throw baseless accusations of sexism and inflated charges of plagiarism. I don't hold these attacks against Hillary herself. Any campaign watching its chances slip away is going to get desperate. My point is that Democrats can't afford for Hillary to hang in the race any longer; because she can't win, and her attacks are only going to get nastier as things drags out.
- Hillary should drop out and endorse Obama, because doing so will avoid a nasty Democratic convention in August. If Hillary ignores my sage advice and stays in this race (which she can't win), we will head into the convention with Obama leading in delegates but with Hillary's team close enough behind that they will be tempted to use underhanded tactics to win. Already, Hillary's team has tried to make us comfortable with the idea of superdelegates overturning the people's choice. Today her campaign even floated the idea that they will try to twist some arms to get Obama's pledged delegates to vote for her. Lord knows what other backroom tactics they could use that we haven't even imagined yet. I am not sure what tricks will be used, but I am sure that if the delegate count is still close going into the convention, there will be blood. But if Hillary does heed my sage advice to drop out and endorse now, Obama will win massive victories in all the remaining states and even the sensationalist media won't be able to stir up a divisive convention. We can show the country that we Democrats, unlike the Republicans, are happy with our nominee.
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If Hillary does not drop out and endorse, I see the remainder of the race playing out one of three ways:
- Obama begins to pulls away after tonight and wins nomination more easily than anyone expected;
- Obama is nominated but bloodied after a nasty home stretch of the race and a divisive convention;
- Hillary somehow completely reverses trends in the remaining state contests and emerges from a blood-bath convention as the nominee. (Yes, still technically possible.)
The slim likelihood of Scenario #3 is not enough to justify Hillary staying in the race. Even if she did miraculously win after a bruising and divisive race and convention, she would take the helm of a weakened and disheartened party. Not a good recipe for November--not just for her, but for any Democrat on a ballot with her.
Final Note: Imagine the enormous good will Hillary would generate for herself among Democrats by dropping out and endorsing before it is absolutely clear that she will not be nominated. It would be the opposite of Huckabee's sad gesture. It would be sacrificing her own slim chances of victory for an almost certain Democratic victory. It would be defeat with dignity.
Final Final Note: It's not enough for people like me (Obama supporters) to issue this call. We need prominent Democrats who've remained neutral and even Hillary supporters who are ready to accept reality to begin saying: Hillary, for the sake of our party, it's time to drop out and endorse Barack Obama.