As many diaries have noted here and the results of the election are making clear, Obama is running a ground game that is changing the rules of politics. How about the Republicans? Well they are in deep, deep trouble. Short version, they are doomed. Long version, below the fold.
Howard Dean's 50 state strategy is being implemented by the Obama campaign with such systematic excellence it is awe inspiring. All the numbers, polls, anecdotes, and victories point not just to an Obama win but to a revitalized Democratic party and a revitalized Democracy.
Ah, the Republicans however have a tiny little problem. It is not mystery that the groundgame for Republicans has for the last twenty years or so relied heavily on Conservative Christian voters. As the results of the last 12 years show, they are very effective. They communicate through churches and community activities. They phone bank, drive people to the polls, and do all of the nitty gritty volunteer work that is the backbone of any succesful campaign. Pundits keep marvelling at Huckabees ability to A) Win states and B) to rack up large percentages in states he does not win. There is no wonder here, his people are, in large part, the volunteer base. With $0, but huge volunteer support, he has put in an impressive showing. And therein we find the catch.
While it seems likely that Republicans of all stripes will rally around McCain, that is not enough. Money he can get - don't worry on that front(though worry may be the wrong word). Motivated Volunteers? Don't count on it. The turnout in the Republican primaries so far suggest a very low level of excitment, even with Huckabee. But how many of Huckabee's volunteers are really going to go the extra mile for McCain? Not enough I assure you. Both Giuliani and Mitt Romney discovered that money can only take you so far - which is not very far at all. Without the rank and file volunteers working for you - you cannot succeed. And what is true at the top of the ticket, will filter down. Many candidates who will be facing strong challengers in previoiusly "safe" seats will look around and find many of the party faithful have simply stopped working. They may still vote, but they won't work. And that spells death across the board for them. I will predict now, that if Obama is the nominee vs. McCain - every district in the country that has a +10 republican margin or less will be in play.
So while Obama and the Democratic party will be riding a wave of grassroots orginization heretofor unimagined, the Republicans have been alienating precisely the people they need to volunteer for them. Fifty States indeed! Now let's work to make this happen!