I know that everyone is downplaying yesterday's results, and I know that the math is on Obama's side, regardless of the spin the media puts on this. But this is a serious wake-up call for us Obama supporters, and the scenarios aren't as rosy as we'd like.
Scenario number one: Clinton wins PA, sweeps Puerto Rico, and brings the delegates lead down to 50 or so. She takes this to an ugly convention, wins the fight on the floor with the superdelegates. The party is fractured, lots of people resent this and stay at home in November, Hillary shows again that she's unable to win independents, and McCain wins the general election. Then he invades a few countries, dies, and Mike Huckabee becomes America's 45th president.
Scenario number two: Clinton wins PA, but Obama's pledged delegates lead is too big for superdelegates to overturn. Clinton stays in until the very end, and Obama doesn't clinch the nomination until August in Denver. He emerges as a weakened nominee, bruised up by Clinton's negative-attacks machine and damaged by the fact that he lost some key battleground states. Republicans paint him as an unpatriotic, Muslim, black teenager and McCain wins the general election, invades a few countries, dies, and President Huckabee amends the Constitution to make it fit his interpretation of the Bible.
Scenario number three: We ALL go to PA to canvass and GOTV in the lamest places, like Scranton. Philly is safe, but it cannot hold down the rest of the state. Obama takes PA, becomes a strong nominee with a united party, and wins in November. With a mandate.
Pennsylvania IS very important, regardless of the math. Back to work!