Today's Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll Report challenges two pieces of conventional wisdom about Obama's march to the Democratic Nomination:
First, that Hillary's supporters would be more likely to support Obama than his supporters would be to support hers.
"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."
Second, that Democratic voters would oppose the Superdelegates throwing their support to the candidate who did not win the majority of the pledged delegates.
The daily tracking poll, like the Gallup daily tracking poll, find Hillary ahead 1 point, at 46%-45%. This is down from the lead she held following her victories in the Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas primaries. And yes, my Obama-supporting friends, I am aware that she lost the caucuses, and perhaps, the delegate count, but she did win the popular vote in the primary.
What do Democrats think of the candidates? Each candidate is viewed favorably by more than 70% of likely Democratic primary voters, Obama 73% and Hillary 72%. What is interesting is how supporters of each candidate view the opposite candidate. Only 45% of Hillary Clinton supporters view Obama favorably while 51% of Barack Obama supporters view Hillary Clinton favorably. Given that Hillary is leading Obama in this poll, this result cannot be dismissed on the basis that Obama has more supporters.
I'm not taking this to mean that Hillary's supporters are less likely to vote for Obama. On the contrary, as long as the supporters of the loser believe that the winner fairly won the race, and that the winner receives the enthusiastic support of the loser, I believe that the party will unite around the winner. However, these results should give pause to those in the Obama campaign who have been taking the support of Hillary's voters for granted.
These numbers also show that Hillary's so-called negative tactics don't seem to be offending Democratic primary voters. After several days of negative press for using so-called "kitchen sink" tactics, Democratic primary voters still view Clinton as favorably as they view Obama. Her strategy may well be cementing the negative views held by Obama's core supporters, but those negative views do not appear to be shared by the majority of the electorate.
The other inconvenient finding is that, in the event that one candidate wins the most popular votes while the other candidate receives the most pledged delegates 59% of Democratic primary voters believe that superdelegates should support the candidate who receives the majority of the popular vote. Only 26% believed that the superdelegates should go with the winner of the pledged delegates. This view is even shared by supporters of Barack Obama:
Still, 45% of Obama voters believe that the nomination should go to the candidate with the most popular votes rather than the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Just 32% of Obama supporters believe the candidate with the most pledged delegates should win.
Perhaps this is why Obama is dragging his feet on a re-vote in Michigan. If Hillary is unable to close the pledged delegate gap, but she manages to overtake him in popular votes, bouyed by repeat victories in Michigan and Florida, then she has opened the door for the superdelegates to swing to her side. If Obama can avoid new primaries, Clinton will probably be unable to get popular votes that she needs to close the gap with Senator Obama. Perhaps Senator Obama should consider poblano's suggestion to seat the delegations as they are. It wouldn't significantly cut into his pledged delegate lead and he would be able to credibly question the validity of Hillary's popular vote lead. Agreeing to new primaries may be a riskier strategy.
Regardless, voters agree that this race is far from over:
Seventy-six percent (76%) of the nation’s Likely Voters know that Barack Obama currently has more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton. However, voters are evenly divided as to who they think will win the nomination. Forty-one percent (41%) say that Obama will win while 38% pick Clinton.
Updated to correct an incorrect link.