Cross posted from My Blog.
With his victory in Wyoming last night, Barack Obama has extended his delegate lead over Hillary Clinton to 99 delegates. Including pledged delegates (those won in primaries in caucuses) and announced superdelegates (Democratic Party leadership that can vote as they choose at convention), Obama has 1,527 delegates and Clinton has 1,428.
There are 33 delegates at stake in Mississippi on Tuesday, March 11, and Barack Obama is polling anywhere from 6 to 24 points ahead of Clinton in that state. The next contest isn’t until April 22, when Pennsylvania heads to the polls. Hillary is still polling around 15 points ahead of Obama in the Keystone State, but if we look at trends from other states where she had a double-digit lead more than a month ahead of the contest (places like Virginia, Maryland, Washington State–all of which Obama won handily), it’s fairly clear that Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania will most likely be diminished.
158 delegates are at stake in Pennsylvania, and for Hillary, this will be the next make-or-break state. For if Obama somehow comes from behind to win, and goes on to win North Carolina (115 delegates), there are no more delegate-rich states left. She will, as has been predicted, be forced to rely on superdelegates who, voters would hope, should cast their votes in consideration of their districts’ decisions, and not in line with their own political alliances and interests.
The delegate math may be close, but the race tally is not. Obama has won 29 contests to Hillary’s 14. Hillary’s campaign argues that "boutique or "latte-drinking" Red States don’t count. But if that were true, Al Gore would’ve been president in 2000, or at least John Kerry would’ve beaten Bush in 2004. When you lose a state like Ohio-–and I hate to say this, but regardless of who the nominee is, I believe Democrats will–-you need states like Kansas, Louisiana, Virginia and Washington to go your way.
If Al Gore had won his own home state of Tennessee in 2000, he would not have needed Florida to win the presidency. Regardless of who you support, it would be ridiculous to deny that Obama can beat McCain in states (like Virginia) where Clinton cannot.
What has backfired on Clinton is that in her efforts to prove Obama’s victories in "Red States" insignificant, she has only succeeded in preventing herself from having any viability in those states in a general election. For a nominee Obama, Red States are very much in play. For a nominee Clinton, they most certainly are not.