There are 3,253 pledged delegates in the 2008 Democratic Primary.
To get the magic 50%+1 number with pledged delegates, a candidate would need 1627 pledged delegates
Using CNN’s current count of pledged delegates...
Obama pledged = 1,328
Current Clinton pledge = 1,190
Total pledged so far = 2,518
Obama is currently leading 53% - 47% in pledged Delegates.
Let's run some numbers.
There are 734 pledged delegates remaining (Total Pledged - Already Voted).
To reach the 50%+1 number of 1627 pledged delegates, Hillary Clinton needs to win 437 of the 735 remaining pledged delegates--or 60%.
For every remaining primary election that Hillary Clinton fails to receive 60% of the pledged delegates it becomes more difficult for her to win a pledged delegate majority.
Keep this in mind if she wins PA by a margin she won OH.
Let’s give Clinton the same 54%-46% pledged delegate win in PA as she got in OH. In PA, that’d split the 158 pledged delegates 84-74. Add those totals to the current count and Clinton would need to win 61% of the remaining pledged delegates after winning PA.
Couple this PA prediction with giving Mississippi to Obama 20-13 as the surprisingly accurate Obama spreadsheet expects and after PA Clinton will need 62.5% of the remaining pledged delegates.
This math is talking about pledged delegates which are elected from different political boundaries as states' raw popular vote, but still, Hillary Clinton has only eclipsed the 60% popular vote threshold in one state: Arkansas.
Even in her much talked about wins in CA, OH, and her "home" state of NY, Clinton didn't crack 60%. By contrast, Obama has done so 16 times.
While past returns are no guarantee on future performance, looking at the remaining states it seems impossible for Hillary Clinton to win a pledged delegate majority.
x-posted @ SquareState.net