The Pennyslvania Democratic Primary has always been fairly late in the game (late April) and fairly DECISIVE each time. I have a feeling that in a campaign of strange twists and turns perhaps Pennsylavania could provide another this cycle.
Which History Will Repeat Itself?
First here are the winners of the Pennyslvania primary since 1968:
1968 McCarthy
1972 Humphrey
1976 Carter
1980 Kennedy
1984 Mondale
1988 Dukakis
1992 Clinton
2000 Gore
2004 Kerry
The last two contests (04, 00) were held long after the race for the Democratic nomination was settled. But in 1988 PA was truly decisive with Dukakis winning over Jackson. Ironically, Mondale's 1984 PA win set off a huge buyer's remorse winning streak FOR Gary Hart culminating in Hart's stunning victory in the June California Primary. 1980 Kennedy was already the beneficiary of buyer's remorse against Carter and Kennedy's PA win propelled him to a big June California Primary win. 1976 Carter sealed the deal by decisively beating Henry Jackson. 1972 Humphrey (the closet thing to Clinton in this race?) beat McGovern (don't say it--he ain't McGovern). In 1968 McCarthy scored a win but this was before Kennedy entered the race.
So what does history tell us? It tells us that Humphrey, Mondale, Clinton, wins bodes well for HRC; while McCarthy, Kennedy bodes well for Obama. The state though has a lot of people still alive who voted for Humphrey in 1972.
Which history wil repeat itself? Will Obama wrap it up ala Carter, Mondale, Dukakis? Or will Hillary be the Ted Kennedy of 08 and start the buyer's remores against Obama?
Any of you involved in these PA primary battles before? Any war stories?