Cross-posted at Purple State Pundit.
Call me crazy, but I believe it's quite possible. Obama hinted last week that his fundraising has slowed down from its record pace in February, and we know that Clinton raised at least $5 million right after March 4.
In addition to the online surge following March 4, it's likely that a lot of big donors who had been holding back to see if she was still viable donated to Clinton. And she had the Elton John concert the other night that probably brought in a lot of money.
Obama probably raised some money after March 4 as well, as it's likely that some of his donors were holding back to see if the primary race would continue before donating. But given that his campaign did not put out their own number when Clinton's team announced how much she had raised, it's unlikely that he raised as much.
Those who know political fundraising know that it is event-driven, so let's go through the rest of the month and evaluate how events may have impacted each campaign's fundraising:
- Samantha Powers calling Hillary a monster. The Clinton campaign used this in a fundraising appeal, and probably raised some money from it.
- Wyoming and Mississippi. Obama won big in both, but since his victories were expected and the media treated them as no surprise, he probably did not get a huge boost in fundraising from them.
- The Geraldine Ferraro controversy. Clinton took a bit of a hit in the polls during this time, and some indignant Obama supporters may have been prompted to give. But it also might have inspired donations from some Clinton supporters who thought Ferraro was being treated unfairly or that Clinton was being unfairly blamed for it. All in all probably not a big net gain for either candidate.
- The Wright controversy. This probably gave Obama a boost from supporters who thought he was unfairly under attack, but it may have also inspired Clinton donors who became more optimistic that she might still have a path to the nomination. It's also possible that Obama's fundraising slowed during this time as people started to have second thoughts.
- Obama's speech on race. No doubt in my mind that a lot of people gave after seeing the speech. I know I did!
- Snipergate. Like the Ferraro thing, could have gone either way. Obama bouncing back in the polls is always a good thing, but once again, Clinton supporters might have rallied to her by donating.
- Leahy's call for Clinton to drop out. The Clinton campaign smartly used this in a fundraising e-mail, and I have no doubt that the call for her to drop out caused some of her supporters to donate to help keep her alive.
- Reports about Clinton's campaign being broke (based on February reports) and not paying vendors. Again, this may have underscored the importance of donating for Clinton's supporters in order to keep her alive.
- The contest to win dinner with Barack. This probably got a lot of donations (my grandparents donated for the first time hoping for a chance to win), but since many of the donations were from people who don't usually donate or people who had already donated but wanted to give a little more in order to win dinner, it's likely that most of these donations were fairly small.
Of course, there were other events that may have driven fundraising, like endorsements. But looking at the events of the month and the fact that Clinton raised so much money right after March 4, I think it's not entirely impossible that she could end up outraising Obama this month.
If that were to happen, the media would consider it a big upset, and it might change the narrative of the race. It might also have the effect of slowing superdelegate endorsements for Obama, as it would be another sign that they should not count Clinton out just yet.
If you are an Obama supporter who does not want to see that happen, I strongly suggest that you try to give today if you have not already given this month (or even if you have). Feel free to use my donation page, or if you have not yet entered the contest to win dinner, do so here.
If you share my concern (or even if you don't, but support Obama) please rec this to help him finish the month strong.
P.S. Please know that I am not asking you to give more than you can afford or go hungry for the month because you donated too much. Only give what you can afford...I don't want to be responsible for anyone defaulting on their mortgage or going hungry for the month!
UPDATE: Someone suggested ending contributions with 0.37 for every point Obama got bowling yesterday. I think that's a great idea!
UPDATE 2: Since I started this thread, we have raised $3,570.64 on my personal page, and probably a lot more than that, since some people donated through the dinner contest or other pages. Who wants to help me reach my goal of $3737.37?