Recently, Jane's Magazine, the official chronicle of military hardware, has issued a list of what it thinks are the fifty most stable "entities" Let's figure out why they're where they are.
What's listed below are called entities rather than countries because not all of them are countries and quite a few don't even consider themselves countries.
An "entity" can be a country, colony or non-contiguous state or province. To show what I mean, here's an example that's not on the list:
0:The Sovereign Military Hospitaller Order of St. John of Jerusalem of Rhodes and of Malta's Extrateritorial headquarters in Rome.
This is to some, the smallest country in the world. The Knights of Malta, as they are known, have a midtown office building near the Spanish steps which is technically a foreign embassy, and thus has extraterritorial rights, and is considered foreign territory under international law, however there is no country for it to be an embassy of, so it's an entity, a nano-state all it's own. It has no stable population, as no one actually lives there. However, there's no chance that the Knights are going out ob business any time soon.
Now the actual list:
1 State of Vatican City.
The reason this is on the list is obvious, barring the return of Jesus or Mohammed there is no chance that the Catholic Church is ever going out of business. The thing has been going strong for nearly 2000 years, and has been a country on and off for 1200 years. There hasn't been a serious coup since the 16th century and with a severe reduction in territory between 1799 and 1870, the teensy remnant has a stable constitution and nobody really wants to overthrow it. Italy doesn't want to pay to maintain all that precious art!
2 Sweden
Since 1905, when the Bernadotte monarchy lost control of Norway, Sweden has been trying to be as inoffensive as humanly possible. They stayed out of World War I, were neutral on the side of the Nazis during World War II, and since then, with no enemies, except possibly Denmark, which claims some territory at the southern tip of the country, Sweden has had a generally successful Social Democratic government.
However, this shouldn't be this far up the list, as a Prime Minister and a Foreign minister were both murdered over the past 25 years.
3 Luxembourg
Like the Vatican, Luxembourg barely counts as a country. In fact, as a founding member of the EU it has given up most of the trappings and privileges of sovereignty.It doesn't control it's own borders, doesn't have it's own currency, cannot make much of it's own laws, and answers to a higher power, the EU.
It is stable because it is rich and nobody covets it.
4 Monaco
The French monarchy was destroyed for good in the 1871 referendumn, and someone had to keep the tabloid gossip magazines filled with salicious gossip. The Grimaldis have been more than happy to oblige, providing France with a Royal family and years of frivolous entertainment free of charge.
Back in 1962, French President Charles de Gaulle nearly destroyed Monaco over tax policy. However, de Gaulle backed down because it wasn't worth it. With Prince Albert II having a couple of bastard sons to succeed him (Prince Louis II's daughter, the mother of Ranier III, was illegitimate, too), and everybody likes the casino and formula 1 auto race.
5 Gibraltar
Usually, a 90% result in a referendum is a sign of corruption, however, in this case this is the genuine will of the people, for in 2002, Tony Blair's Labour government offered Spain joint sovereignty on the tiny penninsula that it had occupied in 1702 (Actually longer than Spain had it) and the Gibs went ballistic. Foreign Minister Jack Straw stated the vote was illegal and wouldn't be recognized, but Blair told him to back down.
The remaining bits of the British Empire want very much to stay in it, much to the UK's chagrin.
6 San Marino
Ever since it got out of having to uniting with Savoyard Italy back in the 1860s, this alegedly 1600 year old republic has been going on it's merry way. It's pretty much useless, nobody wants it save it's inhabitants, and is thus very stable.
7 Liechtenstein
The result of an 18th century real estate deal, Liechtenstein actally doesn't belong this far up on the list. The reason "Jane's" is wrong on this microstate is that revolution in in the air and the EU is gunning for it.
In August 2004, Prince Hans Adam II tried to become an abosolute monarch, but when the parliment told him to go shove it, he fled the country, and ever since, his son Alois has been regent. More recently, several bigshot bankers have gotten in trouble for tax fraud, something Leichtenstein excells in.
On the other hand, who's going to invade, EU accountants?
8 UK
Since the abdication of Edward VIII in 1936, and more recently, the reaction to the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997, the monarchy has been astoundingly resilliant. Nothing is going to happen with it until after the death of HM Elizabeth II.
As to Parliment and "state" and local governments, there has been a great deal of change, but the basic form of the country is going stay put.
ON the other hand, there are independence movements which have little support.
9 Netherlands
Queen Beatrix is scheduled to abdicate within the next two years [abdication is something every monarch has one since the turn of the last century], and this kingdom will have it's first king since 1898.
With no ethnic divisions to speak of, this is probaly too low on the list.
10 Ireland
Having achieved independence over 80 years ago, the emerald isle has discovered that giving it up, in this case to the EU, is econonomically the smart thing to do. The Taoseach is going to resign soon, but the democratic form of government isn't going anywhere...
So, "Jane's" is mostly right, but several of the entities listed have fault lines that are evident and thus deserve to be much further down the list. In other words, stability means being small and unintrusive.