Let me preface the following with a few notes. First, it really has been a long time time since I last posted a diary, so please pardon any oversights or minor faux pas I might make (and my admittedly unpolished presentation). Second, I am (or, better, have become) an Obama supporter, but this is neither a candidate diary nor a conversion story; I am every bit as sick of the primary wars as anyone else and this diary aims to gain no converts but rather to report what I have witnessed on the ground. Finally, this is no more than anecdotal evidence and observations from my CD, PA-02, and from recent travel that has taken me throughout the eastern portion of Pennsylvania, including the majority of the Philadelphia region, the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, Wilkes-Barre and Scranton.
These observations and conversations, all from the past week, have lead me to give some credence to the recent polls that show the race tightening or show Obama ahead. Given what I've seen I can realistically see an Obama win in PA, although I remain skeptical. Follow me for the details...
Delegates and Districts
I currently live and am registered to vote in PA-02, which is the most delegate-rich district in PA and is also one in which Obama would be expected to perform well. Encompassing most of Philadelphia west of Broad Street including almost all of West Philadelphia, all of University City, Mount Airy, Chestnut Hill, and wide swaths of North Philadelphia, Center City and South Philadelphia, the demographics of the district heavily favor Obama. In the past week I've seen Obama signs appear in the windows of many local businesses (5 out of 7 on one block alone) with more appearing every day. While out walking tonight I did a quick count: Obama campaign signs and other visible advertisements (notably a full size bus shelter advertisement with a stylized portrait of Obama with the word Hope at the bottom) outnumber those for Hillary by a ratio between 10-15 to 1 in the area covered. In other areas I've been recently, it has been no different, there is one building on 22nd Street which has a sign in every window that is visible from the street.
Aside from PA-02, the crucial and delegate rich Philadelphia metro area includes PA-01, PA-13 and PA-08, which make up the rest of Philadelphia, a portion of Delaware County, a majority of Montgomery County and nearly all of Bucks County. Also included in this region are PA-07 (Delaware County) and PA-06 (Chester County and the remainder of Montgomery). If my quick mental math is correct, this has 43 of Pennsylvania's delegates within the Philadelphia region, where, based upon what information I can gather, Obama ought to be most easily able to cross the respective thresholds for the various more favorable delegate breaks. Hypothetically, were Obama to sweep the Philadelphia region and Pittsburgh (an extremely unlikely scenario) and be shut out everywhere else, he would still net 50 delegates. Of course there are many more probable scenarios, but I don't see a strong state-wide performance without running up the margins in these districts, and I can see possible 7-2 and 5-2 breaks in PA-02,PA-01, PA-13 and PA-08. I'm more pessimistic about PA-07, while PA-06 has six delegates and I don't see anything but an even split there.
Enthusiasm and New Registrations
Again, with the caveat that this is based entirely on observational and anecdotal evidence (as well as some familiarity with state and local politics - I voted in 2000, 2002 and 2004 in PA-13 and had the misfortune of being registered in Massachusetts during 2006 so I was denied the pleasure of a second, successful vote against Santorum), it appears that a majority of new registrations favor Obama (this includes myself and more than a few friends of mine) - I even recall that there were people from the campaign registering voters in my neighborhood (which is a fairly diverse one, a fairly even mix of 20-something college graduates and grad students, african americans, recent immigrants from Western Africa and their immediate families, etc.) There's palpable enthusiasm, at least among Obama supporters. It appears that the recent polls and news regarding the poor state of the Clinton campaign's finances, Hillary's verbal faux pas, and of the reality of the delegate math have played to the psychology of today's democrats - i.e. our almost innate pessimism. Thus, many Hillary supporters with whom I've spoken seem dispirited and resigned to her eventual loss. The question remains as to whether these will then show up to vote or just sit out the primary. On the other hand, Obama supporters seem to take these polls and reports with a grain of salt and are stepping up their efforts.
Hillary has almost no visibility in Philadelphia and the suburbs, while the opposite is true of the Obama campaign. The only deficit I've noticed is a relative lack of visibility in residential blocks and neighborhoods. Admittedly, visibility isn't everything, but perceptions do influence the results - If anyone with the campaign reads this, I'd be happy to volunteer what time I have to organizing/coordinating efforts to increase visibility in these areas (i.e. signage distribution, etc.). The situation is a little less rosy in the suburban districts, but not bad in the least. The campaign is well-positioned to say the least and enthusiasm is high.
Eastern PA - Northern and Central
Central-Eastern PA (Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, extending north to just short of Wilkes Barre) - I have the least information here, but the race appears fairly even. Demographics are far less favorable than in the Southeastern region and one would expect a strong bias toward Hillary here, but evidence is nowhere to be seen (I'm starting to believe that polls do disproportionately sample older voters now). I wouldn't expect anything momentous here, but an even or close split here still exceeds expectations. (PA-15, part of PA-11)
Northeastern PA - Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - On my way home by bus from Binghamton, NY, I had a layover in Scranton and then a stop in Wilkes-Barre. This area has been expected to be a Hillary stronghold - however, I believe that the Casey endorsement (which became public just prior to my return to Philadelphia) has or will neutralize whatever advantages she may have here. I saw littler or no sign of either campaign here, aside from a few isolated signs, surprisingly all for Obama. (PA-11, PA-10).
On the Street / In a Cab
In the past week not one conversation has not touched on the topic of the primary. More than a few people with whom I've spoken are unclear on the details of the process, but I've been taken by the commitment to and interest in it, particularly among friends in the 21-35 age block.
In closing I must recount a brief story. On Wednesday night I went out for drinks with a friend (one who, like me, could stand to get out more), and we were discussing the primary in the cab on our way back to his apartment . Somehow I brought up the Richardson endorsement, upon hearing which the driver joined in conversation and expressed his support for Obama and his hope for an Obama/Richardson ticket, which is my hope as well (my personal opinion being that Richardson's electoral, political and diplomatic experience would be a huge asset, not to mention demographic considerations).
Stepping out of the cab after such a heartening conversation, I gave the cab driver a tip of over $5 for a $6-7 ride.
(Final note: please excuse the rough nature of this diary - I felt it almost appropriate to be unpolished, given the nature of the content. That's to say, jump on me for something substantive, if you must.)
[Wow, thanks everyone, made the rec list for the first time with this one! And to think I just dashed this off because I felt it needed to get out there]