So a new Time PA poll Hillary up 49-41.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
But I think this poll has some questionable methodology. For one it adds leaners, which some polls do and some don't. Without leaners, Hillary leads 44-38. African-Americans account for 16% of the vote, which I think is a solid estimate.
But 18-29 year olds only account for 9% of the vote and 18-24 year olds only account for 2% of the vote. I think its safe to say that if college students account for 2-3% of the total vote Obama will lose. Plus 65& older account for 24% of the vote.
My question is what do they base this on? In the 04 race, 65& above accounted for 22% of the vote, while 18-29 account for 21%. Sure, that's GE numbers while this is a primary, but young people are more likely to be democrats. So, maybe older people will account for a greater percentage, but an almost 3:1 margin, I don't know about that.