If you thought 2006 was a good year for us when we picked up six seats, 2008 looks a GREAT DEAL better. It's been quite a long time since we've gone into an election cycle where the Repubs have, for the most part, written off FOUR Senate seats seven months before the election!
DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer stated that his committee will contest up to seventeen races in 2008. With our major financial advantages right now, there is a good change we can win at least six, and maybe up to nine races, which would put us at the magic 60 mark.
Anyway, here are my rankings:
Bank it:
- Virginia (Mark Warner (D) v. Jim Gilmore (R)): This race is history. Warner leads by anywhere fron 15 to 30 points in all the polls taken here. This is a state trending blue, and the Old Dominion will have two Democratic senators for the first time since (literally) the Stone Age.
Polls:
3/27/08 (Ras): Warner 55, Gilmore 39
2/19/08 (Ras): Warner 57, Gilmore 37
1/3/08 (Ras): Warner 53, Gilmore 38
Pollster Average: Warner +17.3%
Almost Banked:
- New Mexico (Tom Udall (D) v. Steve Pearce/Heather Wilson (R)): All three New Mexico House seats open up, and Udall has firmly planted himself in pole position for Pete Domenici's once unassailable Senate seat. Once he pushed Marty Chavez out of the primary, it was smooth sailing. Pearce and Wilson are tearing each other to bits and Udall just keeps widening the lead, which is now larger against Wilson than Pearce.
Polls:
4/8/08 (Ras): Udall 54, Pearce 40
4/8/08 (Ras): Udall 56, Wilson 36
2/17/08 (Ras): Udall 50, Pearce 42
2/17/08 (Ras): Udall 50, Wilson 43
1/31/08 (New Mexico St): Udall 52, Wilson 36
1/31/08 (New Mexico St): Udall 53, Pearce 31
- New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen (D) v. John Sununu (R)): This is the analog to 2006 Pennsylvania (Santorum-Casey) two years ago, and looks even more lopsided in many ways than that race. Sununu is an incumbent who votes too far to the right for libertarian New Hampshire. Shaheen, the former governor, is looking for revenge after the shenanigans which cost her the seat in 2002 and also cost a few NH Repubs jail time. Aside from one mistake by her husband during the NH primary, Shaheen is in complete command.
Polls:
3/17/08 (ARG): Shaheen 47, Sununu 33
3/16/08 (Ras): Shaheen 49, Sununu 41
2/13/08 (Ras): Shaheen 49, Sununu 41
1/27/08 (UNH): Shaheen 55, Sununu 37
Pollster Average: Shaheen +12.0
- Colorado (Mark Udall (D) v. Bob Schaffer (R)): Even though Rasmussen and Republican polling firms have this race close, I don't buy it. I'll still post the polls, but I believe Udall is at least 6-8 points ahead in real life. When a Republican poll can't be cooked to place Schaffer ahead, you know he's behind. Add in some coattails from Obama, and Mark Udall looks like he's in excellent shape to take Colorado's other Senate seat for the Dems.
Polls:
4/18/08 (Ras): Udall 45, Schaffer 42
4/7/08 (Target Point/New Leadership-R): Udall 45, Schaffer 45
3/17/08 (Ras): Udall 46, Schaffer 43
3/9/08 (McLaughlin-R): Udall 44, Schaffer 32
2/11/08 (Ras): Schaffer 44, Udall 43
Totally Up In The Air:
- Minnesota (Al Franken (D) v. Norm Coleman (R)): I must admit, I was wrong about Stuart Smalley. The man is good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like him! He's outraised Coleman ever since he entered the campaign, and turned this race into a complete tossup. Polling shows Coleman with a slight lead, but Franken will definitely be boosted by Obama coattails. The major concern I have with this race is all the commercials the Republicans could create ridiculing Franken. That being said, Minnesota's elected mavericks and characters before.
Polls:
3/19/08 (Ras): Coleman 48, Franken 46
3/12/08 (SUSA): Coleman 51, Franken 41
3/9/08 (McLaughlin-R): Coleman 46, Franken 40
2/16/08 (Ras): Franken 49, Coleman 46
2/11/08 (SUSA): Coleman 47, Franken 46
1/27/08 (MPR-Humphrey): Franken 43, Coleman 40
- Alaska (Mark Begich (D) v. Ted Stevens (R)): Begich finally announced his candidacy today for Senate (hat tip to SSP). Who would have thought Alaska, a crimson red state, would appear on this list as a tossup? Two reasons:
--Begich is a phenomenal candidate
--VECO's connections with Senator Tubes is finally disgusting Alaskans.
Note to the uninitiated: This is NOT quite the analog to Burns-Tester two years ago. Stevens is literally a god there (lots of buildings and other monuments are named for him). His base is perhaps the most entrenched in the country. Stevens is the most SENIOR Republican senator in their entire caucus. I'm skeptical about Begich's chances, but when there's smoke, there's fire, and all indicators say there is a toe-to-toe race up there.
Polls:
4/7/08 (Ras): Stevens 46, Begich 45
12/6/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Begich 47, Stevens 41
Races That Look Stale and Lean Their Way, But May Heat Up:
- Oregon (Jeff Merkley/Steve Novick (D) v. Gordon Smith (R)): If only DeFazio had thrown his hat into the ring. This is one of the nastiest Senate primary fights we've seen in a long time. Instead of focusing their energies squarely on Smith's constant vacillations (re: Iraq War), Merkley and Novick turned the guns on each other and blown each other's chances almost completely out of the water. I believe that Merkley can slowly heal the rifts between the candidacies, but Novick will widen them with his posture and rhetoric. This race stays Lean R if Merkley wins because his fundraising and DSCC help will close the money gap with Smith, who is currently sitting on five million dollars. A Novick primary win drops this race almost completely off the table. Although Gordon Smith is afflicted with a serious case of foot-in-mouth disease, he's very good at exploiting that same flaw in others.
Polls:
2/19/08 (Ras): Smith 48, Merkley 30
2/19/08 (Ras): Smith 48, Novick 35
10/28/07 (SUSA): Smith 48, Merkley 39
10/28/07 (SUSA): Smith 45, Novick 39
- Maine (Tom Allen (D) v. Susan Collins (R)): Allen wouldn't be so stupid to give up a House seat he's won for life to take on a quixotic Senate challenge if he didn't think he had a chance. The polls indicate he doesn't have a chance, but Maine is notoriously known for its independent electorate and just like neighboring New Hampshire, a propensity to change their minds at the last minute. Obama's candidacy will aid Allen significantly here.
Another note to the uninitiated: This is NOT the analog to Whitehouse-Chafee two years ago. Maine is more conservative (libertarian) than RI and Susan Collins is extremely popular (72% approval). Allen MUST tie the suffering economy to all the money Susan Collins decided to send to Iraq. Collins unwaveringly supports the Iraq War and Allen must press this point EVERY DAY to close this gap.
Polls:
4/1/08 (Ras): Collins 54, Allen 38
3/9/08 (McLaughlin-R): Collins 54, Allen 31
Are We Tilting At Windmills, Or Do We Really Have a Chance?
- Oklahoma (Andrew Rice (D) v. James Inhofe (R)) That's right. I placed Oklahoma of all states as the most likely of the longshots to break into competitive territory. How in the world could Oklahoma possibly be competitive? Well, we've got a phenomenal candidate in State Senator Andrew Rice, who has raised $1,000,000 already (with 600K COH). Another quarter like this and he can cut the fundraising deficit to 2:1, which is what we need to compete against a Republican incumbent. Secondly, the most fervent global warming denier on the planet isn't even popular at home. Inhofe's approvals are only 47% (vs. 41% disapproval). This is the longshot to watch.
Polls:
12/12/07 (Benenson-D): Inhofe 49, Rice 35
- Miss-B (Ronnie Musgrove (D) v. Roger Wicker (R)): Musgrove's won statewide before; Wicker hasn't. Musgrove is EXTREMELY conservative for a Dem, but that's in line with the Mississippi electorate. The fact that this election is being held in November hurts Musgrove's chances significantly. His COH disadvantage (2.75M for Wicker to 337K for Musgrove) puts him behind the eight-ball. However, polling remains close, for now. This race remains here because of the strong red tilt of the state.
Polls:
12/22/07 (Greenberg-D): Musgrove 48, Wicker 34
12/17/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Wicker 47, Musgrove 39 (undersampled AA voters)
- North Carolina (Kay Hagan/Jim Neal (D) v. Elizabeth Dole (R)): A lot of people have this race higher, because Dole only polls about a dozen points ahead of two candidates with very little name recognition. Dole's seen as a little bit of an airhead, even with NC voters, but I'm not convinced that either candidate opposing her is strong enough to make any real dent. NC is actually more Democratic than OK, but OK is higher because of the amazing candidate we've got there. I was almost ready to put Nebraska above this race, but I don't think Johanns is that vulnerable.
Anyway, we've got either State Senator Kay Hagan or investment banker Jim Neal to face Dole. Hagan looks a little stronger, but both need to raise money, and fast. Dole most likely holds a COH advantage that ranges anywhere from five to ten to one. This race MAY become competitive down the line with a DSCC cash infusion.
Polls:
12/18/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Dole 46, Hagan 39
12/18/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Dole 47, Neal 37
- Texas (Rick Noriega (D) v. John Cornyn (R)): On paper, Lt. Col. Noriega is a perfect candidate. If he were in Oklahoma instead of Texas, he would stand in the same spot Andrew Rice currently occupies. The big sticking point is money. Noriega doesn't have enough to last more than three days in a fully pitched campaign against an entrenched Republican incumbent in a big red state. Noriega sits on 333K COH, which is 25 times less than Cornyn's 8.8M stash of cash. He needs to reduce this disadvantage, and FAST. Cornyn is vulnerable, but you need the ability to put your own message out to make him beatable.
Polls:
9/26/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Cornyn 51, Noriega 35
- Nebraska (Scott Kleeb/Tony Raimondo (D) v. Mike Johanns (R)): Raimondo was a Republican who switched parties so he wouldn't have to run against Johanns in the first place in the primary (a la Bloomberg in 2001 when running for mayor of NYC). Kleeb ran a very strong race in one of the reddest districts in the country (NE-3), winning 45% of the vote and making Democrats relevant in Western Nebraska for the first time since the New Deal. I firmly believe Kleeb will win the primary. He MUST paint Johanns as a man who will never finish the job he's been elected (or appointed) for. Polls look awful for Kleeb, but he'll play better in Omaha and Lincoln than in Grand Island. Expect this race to get a little more competitive as spring turns to summer and fall.
Polls:
11/14/07 (DKos-R2000-D): Johanns 59, Kleeb 28
Defense! (Clap, Clap) Defense! (Clap Clap)
- Louisiana (Mary Landrieu (D) v. John Neely Kennedy (R)): This is once again, the ONLY real pickup opportunity for the Repubs. However, polling favors the incumbent. Of all the Senate races in the country, I would place it around 8th or 9th on the list in terms of vulnerability (below Oregon, but probably above Maine). I honestly think the Republicans wanted to recruit this guy to confuse old yellow dogs into voting for a guy who is like the REAL John Kennedy. (Well in Missouri the Democratic candidate for Governor is named Nixon). The only concerns I have about this race is the state we're competing in (Louisiana is red) and the last quarter's fundraising (1.4M for J. Neely Kennedy, 1.1M for Landrieu. She still has a huge COH advantage).
Polls:
4/10/08 (Ras): Landrieu 55, Kennedy 39
4/9/08 (Southern Media Research): Landrieu 50, Kennedy 38
12/10/07 (SUSA): Landrieu 46, Kennedy 42
Races which I consider Safe for the moment:
Republican seats:
- Kentucky (recruiting disappointments)
- Idaho (way too red, although ID-1 will be a really good House race)
- Tennessee (unless Lamar Alexander is tapped to be McCain's VP as McCain will surely pick a Southerner to shore up his weaknesses with Southern conservatives)
- Kansas (unless Obama picks Sebelius to be his VP, giving Jim Slattery some serious coattails; I still think Roberts is too entrenched)
- South Carolina (unless Graham is unseated in the Republican primary, then we have an open seat and the race moves up)
- Georgia (we SHOULD be competitive here, but we aren't)
- Alabama (Ron Sparks shouldn't have passed on this race; he had a real chance)
- Miss-A (A Mike Moore candidacy could have forced Thad Cochran into retirement, but alas, Cochran will serve another term).
- Wyoming-B (John Barrasso, appointed in place of the late Senator Thomas, will cruise to a term of his own).
- Wyoming-A (Mike Enzi is as safe as can be).
Democratic seats:
- New Jersey (Unless Andrews upsets Lautenberg in the primary, which is highly unlikely, Lautenberg will have his way with Republican retread Dick Zimmer).
- South Dakota (Tim Johnson's health is a major issue, but he hasn't drawn a serious challenger).
- Iowa (As long as Harkin doesn't draw another Republican congressman, he won't have a close race).
- Massachusetts (Kerry isn't as popular as he used to be, but he hasn't drawn a formidable challenger).
- Montana (Baucus faces third-tier opposition instead of Denny Rehberg, who would have made it a race).
- West Virginia (Rockefeller will probably race 2006 loser John Raese)
- Michigan (Levin has this seat as long as he wants it)
- Illinois (Durbin is virtually unchallenged)
- Delaware (Biden's seat for life)
- Arkansas (Pryor drew no Republican challenger)
- Rhode Island (Jack Reed has no challenger of note)