The Drip Drip Drip is about to become a bit of a flood...
Obama strategists said Monday that they expected to announce a series of additional endorsements by uncommitted superdelegates shortly after Pennsylvania votes. A strong showing by Obama in Pennsylvania would give superdelegates more comfort in coming forward, but a bad loss might send them back to the assessment stage.
It's helpful to understand then what a strong showing entails. To put it shortly, as I've seen it in LA Time and by Chuck Todd, these are the final CW Goalposts:
Hillary +10% - Big Victory; Freezes Supers
Hillary +5-+10% - Grey area, Spin zone, both sides win
Hillary 1% -+5% - An Obama Spinnable Win
Obama + - Hillary +1% - Game Over; Hillary Drops out
Chris Matthews said his line of demarcation is 8%... Chuck Todd said his is 7%... That's the quick over or under. Here's more from the LA Times
The spread: Clinton needs to win by at least 10 percentage points -- the margin she posted over Obama in Ohio's March 4 primary -- to show that she has not lost her touch in the industrial Rust Belt, several uncommitted superdelegates said.
If she is successful, she will be able to point superdelegates to the fact that she trounced Obama despite being severely outspent on television and radio advertisements in Pennsylvania by a more than 2-to-1 margin.
If Obama can keep the race to within 10 percentage points, or even win, he would claim that he has shown surprising strength in a state that is Clinton's demographic home turf, with many of the lower-income Democrats who have supported her in earlier primaries. That kind of result would give Obama momentum heading toward the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina, where a sweep would make a Clinton nomination feel all the more unrealistic.
It seems as if the goalposts moved a bit in the last week towards Hillary, with a 5.1% victory seemily acceptable now, when we all know how it doesn't affect the delegate math at all. However, consider these the final goal posts and we'll see how it all plays.
If Obama is able to perform in Single Digits, especially Sub 7-8%, then look for a Flood of Superdelegates in Waiting. Combine this with the Growing North Carolina lead and the basic Tie in Indiana, and the end certainly seems within reach.
Let's go PA... Keep it Close!