Update 1: [As i thought might happen, someone got a piece up first that made the reclist while i was writing this, but so it goes, on days we all badly need good news.. :> ]
So i posted my very first diary yesterday, about an early exit poll that turned out pretty off (though i'd given all the proper provisos in my little piece), so in 'apology', i'll post a link to this short article from Boston.com, which states unequivocally that... (be brave and make the jump, friends, now is no time to step back!)
John Edwards is one of the biggest Democratic fish that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama have reeled in, but some of Edwards's key backers in his home state announced today they are throwing their support to Obama ahead of the May 6 primary in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign said that 49 prominent supporters of Edwards -- including Ed Turlington, the former North Carolina senator's former national chairman -- have signed on.
"Barack Obama and John Edwards share a commitment to taking on special interests and standing up for regular Americans. Along with Edwards supporters from across the state, I am honored to join Senator Obama's movement for change," Turlington said in a statement issued by the Obama camp.
Which is quite nice to see -- it still doesn't say that Edwards will ever endorse, but perhaps (?) it's starting to indicate the kind of leanings which made Pres. Carter say just look at who my family is supporting to see which way i'm voting..?
[I should point out for reference that the article also talks about a superdel from TN who has come out for Hillary, just so you're not unpleasantly shocked. so with OK's gov coming out for Barack this morn, that's a net of zero since last night..]
Also, i know that we saw yesterday that some 29 NC state legislators endorsed Barack, but this is 20 more "prominent" NC'ians than that, so i think it's going somewhere -- and no one can take this one as a poll! it's support that's clearly solid and steadfast, whatever it will mean to the future.
Of course, the real battleground the next 2 weeks will be Indiana, and since i live in Ohio, i will be able to go over there and pound some pavement for Barack (just as i did in Pittsburgh, and felt good about, and talk about a little, below).
For multiple reasons, the biggest being the self-preservation instincts of the Dem superdels, despite all their current hand-wringing, i actually do think this is all going to be over in the weeks following May 7, so i'm not as stressed about this as i have been earlier in the cycle. and i am pretty sure this is going to be over by mid-June, am willing to take a bet with anyone on this, if you'd like to take me up on a wager. just say so in the comments. :->
Since this is only my second diary (though i don't expect to be posting all that many for now), i wanted to also say that posting last night made me somehow feel a 'real' part of the DKos community, where i was truly giving back something vs. just reading the hundreds of diaries as i have, the last few months. i didn't expect it to make me feel so different, but it did, and i really, really appreciated the positive comments i got back to my brief (and ultimately misleading) poll reference, and the recs i got, too. i plan to personally mail each of those folks back. :>
Last, i include below some excerpts of comments i wrote friends this morn, to lift them, and myself, up a bit. and perhaps you, too.
Peace.
-X
Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2008 09:50:50 AM, EDT
To: Political Friends
Subject: [pfcc+] The actual margin WAS in the single digits -- and we roll
forward.
The actual margin WAS in the single digits -- and we roll
forward. It's in fact 9.38%, which rounds to 9%, not 10, as some
places inaccurately round it to (like CNN). NYTimes gives the precise
#'s as:
Clinton: 54.7%,
Obama: 45.3%.
And Clinton up by +10 dels, here.
Yes, sad and disappointing, no doubt, when we were all hoping it would be
less, but life goes on. the path to a better world is a long one, that we
but walk a small piece of in our lives, and do what we can while we walk
it to make it a teeny bit better when we leave, which is all we can -- and
must -- do.
Barack will win this, in the end, i will bet anyone a lot of money
on that, right now (see the ps for some of why i'm sure about this).
it's just a matter of how, and when. and i'm still pretty sure it
will be by mid-June. some people think it will even be quickly after
May 7, if he wins both NC (which is certain) and Indiana (which is
very much on the edge, right now), and the superdels then endorse him,
en masse.
Please consider making trips and calls to Indiana in the next 2 weeks -- i
plan to go there at least one day and pound the pavement again. i know
it made a difference in several votes in Pitt, and that matters to me .
And keep on donating sustainably and steadily to Barack -- he will need
it, and i'm absolutely sure that if and when he has anything left over,
he's going to use it to great effect for the general election, and spread
it among the Congress races that will need it, too.
Peace, and patience, my friends.
Patience, and peace--
X
ps. ---- A diagnosis
I was at a bar with other Obama supporters as the returns came in last
night, commiserating and talking, and the volume was off so i couldn't
hear either speech (will find them later) but they subtitled the words, of
which i caught some. and i was just so pleased to see Barack's body
language as quietly confident as ever, and the consistency in his words
and positions over the past months (and years, if you go back and look at
them).
One of the people i was talking with was an attorney who had followed this
race for a long while, and said, with the confidence of someone who has
studied this carefully, that Hillary actually has 'narcissistic
personality disorder.' i'm not up on the DSM and psychology of it enough
to say for sure, but many of the characteristics he mentioned indeed jived
with what i've seen in her, and know of her history, and relationship with
Bill, and Chelsea. in fact, i sometimes wonder who Hillary loves most in
the world (other than herself) because this matters, a lot, to who we are.
is it Bill, and Chelsea, really..? (as it ought be, certainly, in general
-- our nuclear family forms the basis of our support in the world,
usually, though it's true people find what they need in other places when
this is not completely the case).
For the case of Barack, it's very clear to me that he had a very
solid mother and grandparents, and Michelle forms his 'rock', as he
says repeatedly. and he is a very fine (if unavoidably somewhat
absent, at the moment) Dad to his young daughters.
But i really just don't know with Hillary.. not that it will matter too
much, in a couple of months. but the psychology of people in power (and
really, in general) always fascinates me. so i do wonder.
-------------- Superdels, and how this will play out.
A few other points:
-- Hillary now needs 71% of the total remaining delegates (which is
1.5 times more than those that were in PA) to overtake Barack:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
This won't happen, as it is a certainty that i'll bet my lunch money on
that Barack will win: NC,MT,OR, and SD. Hillary will most likely win WV,
KY, and possibly IN. and yes, it will come down to superdels, and here's
a place you can find those who are still undecided
(and it's totally valid to contact any you
want to give your feelings for why they should endorse Barack, asap, and
come down off the fence, as DNC Chair Howard Dean has been urging them to
do).
The superdels understand self-interest -- they know Barack will have
much longer coattails than Hillary. in fact, it's one of the
arguments i make when i talk to people -- it is a given that Barack
will be able to pull in a much more Dem Congress than Hillary will,
with the history of negatives she has, and the mobilization of Repubs
that would rise up if she was the nominee. we just know this, so
there's not really any arguing about it. this is why i know
ultimately Barack will prevail.
And hey, look, the newest superdel to endorse, just today, is the OK
governor, Brad Henry, for Barack! :>
-- One inspiring and lengthy piece by a strong long-time Obama supporter:
"a message of hope"