I've been reading DKos and other blogs very carefully the last few days. I've been watching TV, reading newspapers, and thinking through all the implications of Obama's loss in Pennsylvania. What I've determined is that I am absolutely in agreement with Kos and many others here about Obama and his prospects for nomination and victory in the fall. I've also determined, however, that there is a decided unwillingness to confront certain aspects of reality in DKos and, at risk of drawing flames, it has become a bit of an echo-chamber screaming "all is well, Obama is doing great!!" Actually, there are some issue that need to be dealt with.
I'll list my thoughts out in an organized manner below, but at the end of the day what I believe is this:
While Obama is in the driver's seat for the nomination and for victory in the fall, he and his campaign need a re-boot. He seems tired and un-refreshed, and there is an element of mojo missing from the man and his message. Some of the luster is off and he needs to re-capture the shine and the magic. In a word, he needs to adjust. The good news: it's well within his power to do it.
1) I agree with everyone here, the traditional media is ridiculous:
I turned on MSNBC yesterday and saw Norah O'Donnell go on and on about what a stunning, decisive, enormous victory it was for Hillary Clinton. She interviewed a writer from the WaPo who said it could be the beginning of a comeback for Clinton and mentioned the enormous margins that Hillary beat Obama by in rural districts (of course, no mention of his margins in Philly). It was a pathetic display - an inability to put anything into context. A moment that was screaming for Chuck Todd to show up with his math and explain the ridiculousness of the "comeback" talk.
A lot of hand-wringing in the media about "Why Didn't He Win," and Kos wrote some terrific arguments yesterday.
Having said that:
2) There is a reason that no one asks why Hillary can't win black and young voters
Everyone asks Obama why he can't win white, blue-collar voters, but no one asks Hillary or her surrogates why she can't win black voters or why she can't win white, blue-collar voters in mountain-west states. Analyzing the demographics, it's clear that his demographics actually lead to a stronger victory in the fall and in the swing states, and yet this still dogs him.
So why don't they ask Hillary about her demographic problem? BECAUSE SHE CAN'T WIN. This is an implicit acknowledgment that she won't win the nomination and everyone knows it. After all, no one asks Ron Paul why he can't win moderate Republican voters. The day she becomes the realistic front-runner for the nomination, she'll get those questions. Until she does, it's Obama who has to answer, and that's just the way it's gonna be. So if it were up to me, I'd love to see Kossacks stop bitching about it and realize Obama has no choice but to confront this head-on.
3) Enough with the big rallies = victory diaries
For more than 12 hours there's been a diary on the recommended list about how Hillary's rally drew only 500 people. And we all know how many Obama can draw to a rally. My question to you is: so what?
I'm willing to admit that Hillary's base of support comes from people who are unlikely to attend a political rally, let alone one in the middle of a weekday. For example, take a look at this blog entry from Philly.com:
A crowd of about a dozen supporters are screaming at the few cars passing by this fellowship house. "One! Let's vote for Hillary! Two! A little bit louder! Three! I still can't hear you, she is number one!"
No big surprise for these supporters-- they know she's coming. They were the same crowd cheering for Clinton at another stop yesterday, according to reporters here
She had to import staff to cheer for her. And guess what? She won the state by 9 points. Okay, if rally diaries fire people up here that's great. But Kossacks have been taking comfort in big rallies since the Dean days. I remember thinking Kerry would win because of his huge Madison and Philadelphia rallies in 2004. Let's get to the meat-and-potatoes of this election and be a little less complacent because of big turnouts at rallies.
4) Obama needs a re-boot
It's been reported over and over again how tired and grumpy the guys seems on the stump. Apparently he's been way off his game, less energized, and losing a bit of his magic touch. Hell, he's exhausted. Who wouldn't be? And yet Hillary, as much as she grates my nerves, has seemed energized and on fire, especially in PA.
As Ambinder reports, there is an emerging Zeitgeist in the media that he has lost his mojo, that he has fallen to earth in a big way after PA:
Obama's still likely to win the nomination, but he has emerged from Pennsylvania weakened, his message stale and worn
True or not, that's the perception. But, and I say this as someone who wants nothing more on this earth than for Obama to be our next president:
It's true.
His message is worn. I have heard little new from him in some time. He got dragged down into tit-for-tat with Clinton in PA and it was a mistake.
The reason so many of us vote for Obama is because we don't want to live the next few years with more Clinton vs. GOP crap hanging around our necks - that is, if she could even win in November (something I strongly doubt). Obama vowed to turn the page on the same old Washington crap and bring in a breath of fresh air. He is substantive, right on the issues, and won't be bogged down by the baggage of the past. He represents hope for the future.
But how often have you heard that in the last few weeks? Sure, Pastor-gate and bitter-gate and the traditional media had a lot to do with that. But where is that special guy we saw for so long until PA came around?
He, his campaign, and his message need one really good night's sleep, and a re-charge.
5) Finally, what to do next?
Obama should do what he does best: confront controversy head on. People say he's lost his touch. That he can't reach white voters. Prove them wrong.
But don't just do it in the conventional political way...beer and bowling, hunting, pretending you're someone you're not. Do it in the way only Obama can: with his intellect and inspirational ability.
Maybe it's in danger of becoming trite, but fug it: Kick off the Indiana campaign with a speech about the "white, blue-collar vote." Explain that he understands the hesitancy for older people to go with someone new and without the visible track-record of a Clinton. But then pivot and explain just why it's so necessary for exactly that to take place. Explain why only he can win in the fall. Talk about his background and how he understands small-town Americans because of his own experiences in Illinois and as the son of a Kansan. Why his election is good for these people, for America and the Democratic party. And why Indiana and North Carolina have the ability to end the drama.
And most importantly why, despite his troubles in the primary, he knows he'll be able to win their votes in the fall.
By doing so, he not only will he confront his critics in the media, but he can explain both to voters and super delegates that he understands the issue and plans on dealing with it directly. And in the process, can remind us all why he is just something special. And he can make the Republicans scared again by showing just how resilient he is.
6) In conclusion
In conclusion, I disagree with those among us who would say that everything is 100% fine and Obama should just keep on keeping on as is. At the moment, he is dealing with a perception of weakness. He should what is perceived to be a problem and use it as an opportunity.
He has work to do. He has won over DKos, he has certainly won me over, but he has many others left to convince. Let's stop bitching about it or pretending that there isn't work left to do. Obama will continue to get this kind of scrutiny because he is the presumptive nominee.
Now he has to prove to those what we all know:
He is something special. He can win the fall in a big way (and in ways Clinton cannot). And he will be a great president.
UPDATE: Thank you all for putting this on the rec list. As you can see from my other diaries, usually I just put the news out there. This diary was almost entirely made up of my feelings which I rarely write about, and as such the fact that it's on the list really means a lot to me. I hope this is a fruitful discussion.