There's a little over a week before the North Carolina primary, so I figured I'd take a shot at some district-by-district prognostication.
NC-01:
Stretching across the coastal plain from I-85 in the west to Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds in the east, the rural, heavily black 1st district covers much of North Carolina's tobacco country. It is by far the poorest in North Carolina, with a median household income of just over $28,000, and it is also the most heavily Democratic. The district is represented in Congress by G.K. Butterfield, a civil rights lawyer and former state supreme court judge who won the seat in a 2004 special election triggered by the retirement of Frank Ballance in 2004. Butterfield has endorsed Obama.
About 60% of the Democrats in this district are African-American, so Obama should carry this six-delegate district with the 58.3% he needs to take a fourth delegate. A 5-1 delegate split here would require a 3:1 victory, which is possible but unlikely. In the end, too many white voters will turn out in the first for Obama to break 75%. The district will split Obama 4, Clinton 2.
NC-02:
Like the 1st, the 2nd district sprawls across the rural tobacco country of the coastal plain. Unlike the 1st, it includes substantial parts of two urban areas: Raleigh in the north and Fayetteville in the south. The district is whiter, wealthier and more Republican by registration than the 1st, though it is still blacker, poorer and more Democratic than the rest of the state. It has elected Democrat Bob Etheridge, a toabcco farmer, to Congress six times, even though Bush carried the district both in 2000 and 2004. Etheridge has not endorsed.
Obama's will run strong in the Raleigh suburbs and in the rural black precincts scattered throughout the district. The demographics favor him here; about half of registered democrats are African Americans and white seniors make up only 9% of the district's voting-age population. Expect Obama to rack up the 58.3% he needs for a delegate split of Obama 4, Clinton 2.
NC-03:
The 3rd district is home to the beautiful barrier islands of the Outer Banks that stretch for 200 miles along the North Carolina coast. Away from the coast, it reaches deep into tobacco country to take in mostly white precincts surrounding the cities of Rocky Mount, Wilson, and Goldsboro. It's voting-age population is one-sixth black, and slightly younger and poorer than the state average. The district is represented in the House by the socially conservative Walter Jones, one of the few Republicans in congress to split with the Bush Administration on Iraq.
This four-delegate district will probably go narrowly for Hillary Clinton. But African Americans make up some 30% of registered Democrats in the district, and their support should keep Obama well above the 37.5% threshold he needs to guarentee a split of Obama 2, Clinton 2.
NC-04:
When Research Triangle Park was created in 1959, Wake, Durham and Orange counties had a population of 324,000. By 2000, that number had nearly tripled, to 969,000. Today, more than 1.2 million live in the three counties at the heart of the triangle. Research Triangle Park sits in the center of the 4th district, which also includes the college town of Chapel Hill, the heavily Black, liberal city of Durham, and the more conservative, fast-growing suburbs of southern Wake and northern Chatham Counties. Ten-term Democrat David Price, an Obama supporter, represents this district in Congress.
One-fifth of the voting age population and about a third of registered Democrats in the 4th are black. Durham's large black middle class is very politically active and will turn out heavily for Obama. Obama can also expect to run up a margins in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina. The worst part of this district for Obama may be the wealthy Wake County suburbs, which he will probably win comfortably. Obama has garnered the endorsmenets of the mayors of Durham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Cary, and Hillsborough. To win this most delegate-wealthy district in the state 6-3, Obama will need to carry 61.1% of the vote, and if he manages to break 72.2% he can take a seventh delegate. For now, we'll say Obama 6, Clinton 3.
NC-05:
On the western edge of North Carolina, deep in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Watauga County, you can find the college town of Boone, home to three-time defending Division I-AA football champions Appalachian State Mountaineers. One hundred miles to the east is the city of Winston-Salem, home to the RJ Reynolds Company, the second-largest tobacco company in America. In between, small, blue collar towns dot the rolling Piedmont. Most of the voters in this district live on the Piedmont, and they tend to vote heavily Republican in both federal and state elections. Republican Virginia Foxx has represented this district in Congress since 2005.
The 5th district looks to be one of Clinton's best in the state. Only 16% of Democrats here are black, and more than half of the voting-age population has no college education. She should win this district handily. Obama's campaign is well enough established here-he has opened field offices in Boone and Mount Airy-that he should easily reach the 30% he needs to keep his delegate loss here to Obama 2, Clinton 3
NC-06
In the southern corner of this central North Carolina district, the Moore County is home to dozens of golf courses including Pinehurst No. 2, site of the 2000 and 2006 US Opens. In the north lie Greensboro, the furniture manufacturing city of High Point, and their suburbs in Guilford County. At PVI R+17, the 6th district is the most heavily Republican in the state. The district first elected Republican Howard Coble to Congress in 1984; Coble still represents it today.
The 6th is so heavily Republican that black voters make up 22% of the registered Democrats in the district, even though only 8% of the voting-age population is black. Whites in this district are generally more wealthy and better educated than their counterparts in the 5th. The demographics favor a Clinton victory, but not a blowout. Obama 2, Clinton 3.
NC-07:
The 7th district is a diverse mix of several distinct communities. About one quarter of the district's residents live along the Atlantic Ocean in New Hanover County, whose county seat of Wilmington is the eighth largest city in the state. In the northwestern corner of the district lies the racially diverse miliary city of Fayetteville. More than half of the voting-age population lives in the rural tobacco and hog-farming counties in between. The largest of these counties is Robeson, home to the Lumbee Native American tribe which has been seeking federal recognition for over a century. In 2007, 7th district Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre pushed the Lumbee Recogntion Act through the House, but it has stalled in the Senate. McIntyre has not yet endorsed.
Obama should win this district on the strength of the black vote. African Americans make up one-fifth of the district's voting-age population and one-third of the its registered Democrats. Obama might have trouble breaking the 58.3% threshold which would net him an extra delegate, as the district's white Democrats are mostly blue-collar ones. The Lumbee vote will be key. In the end, the 7th should split, Obama 3, Clinton 3
NC-08:
The eighth district includes parts of the Fayetteville and Charlotte metro areas, plus a large swath of rural country in between. Income and education levels here are about the same as they are for the state as a whole. The eighth district is politically marginal, and was the site of one of the closest house races in the country in 2006. It went for Bush 54-45 both in 2000 and 2004. Republican Robin Hayes represents NC-08 in Congress.
Obama won 55% of the vote in the neighboring district SC-05, which has fewer African Americans and is poorer, more rural, and more Republican than NC-08. That, and the fact that nearly half of registered Democrats in the district are black, all but assures victory for Obama in the 8th. It will be very difficult, however, for him to break 70% and win a fourth delegate here. The most likely outcome is therefore Obama 3, Clinton 2
NC-09:
At 1,018 square miles, the Charlotte-based 9th district is the second-smallest in the state. The wealthy ($57,000 median HH income), heavily suburban, district takes in parts of Gaston, Mecklenburg, and Union Counties. It is the wealthiest district in the state, and, by registration, the least Democratic. More people here have at least a bachelors degree than in any other district except the 4th. The district, which gave Bush identical 63-31 margins in 2000 and 2004, is represented by the xenophobic Sue Myrick in Congress.
It won't be easy for either candidate to win a majority of delegates in this six-delegate district, but a 4-2 Obama split seems a lot more plausible than a 4-2 Clinton split. This district has a relatively small percentage of white seniors, and 30% of registered Democrats identify as black. In GA-07, a suburban Atlanta district that is the demographic twin of NC-09 except that it is slightly richer and six points more Republican, Obama won big, 62-35. He needs 58.3% here to avoid an even split of delegates. Obama 3, Clinton 3
NC-10
The tenth district, which climbs up the Piedmont from the outskirts of Charlotte and Gastonia to the high peaks of the Blue Ridge Mountains, is NASCAR Country. It is the most blue collar in the state, and one-sixth of the district's residents identify their ancestry as "United States" or "American". Most of its residents live in small cities and towns along I-40 and US-321. More than half of the voting-age population here has no college education. Republican Patrick McHenry, who aspires to be the next Tom DeLay, represents this district in Congress.
I expect this district to be Clinton's strongest statewide. If she wins, she is guaranteed at least three of the district's five delegates. To get a fourth, she would need to break 70%, which is unlikely given that the district contains a nontrivial black population and most of the white voters here are Republican anyway. Expect this district to go Obama 2, Clinton 3.
NC-11
The 11th district is the highest by elevation east of the Mississippi river, and it contains some of the country's most beautiful scenery. It is home to the dense, green forests of the fog-enshrouded Great Smoky Mountains, which form the western border of North Carolina. While it is located in the heart of Appalachia, it didn't follow the rest of the region's political shift toward the Republican party in 2004; Bush's share of the vote dropped from 58% in 2000 to 57% in '04. It is heavily white and has a large number of retirees. Democrat Heath Shuler unseated Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in the 2006 NC-11 US House race. Shuler has not endorsed.
This district looks like a disaster for Obama. Only 4% of the VAP and 7% of registered Democrats are black. There are almost as many whites over 65 as there are whites between 18 and 34. Almost half of the voting-age population consists of non-college educated whites. In neighboring counties in Georgia and Tennessee, Obama did very poorly. Looking at the demographics alone, the 11th looks like a great candidate to go 4-1 Clinton. What gets Obama over 30% in this district is Buncombe County, where 36% of its registered Democrats live, and the liberal city of Asheville. Clinton should break the 58.3% she needs for a 4-2 split, but fall short of the 75% necessary to win five. Obama 2, Clinton 34
NC-12
The twelfth district is a ribbon of North Carolina Piedmont containing heavily black precincts in Winston Salem, Greensboro, High Point and Charlotte, as well as the cities of Salisbury and Lexington. It is the smallest district in the state and thus the most densely populated, and it is poorer and less well educated than the state average. African-American Democrat Mel Watt represents the 12th district in Congress; Watt has endorsed Barack Obama.
Seven in ten registered Democrats here are black, so Obama is virtually assured of winning over 64.2% of the vote and five of the seven delegates. He's also very unlikely to win six of the seven, as that would require winning more than 78.5% of the vote. Obama 5, Clinton 2
NC-13
The 13th district is based on the capitol city of Raleigh, although it reaches into the suburbs of the racially and ethically diverse city of Greensboro 65 miles to the west. It is-and always has been-represented in Congress by Democrat Brad Miller; while in the state legislature, Miller drew the district for himself in 2001 after the state gained a congressional district in the 2000 reapportionment. Miller has not endorsed a candidate for president yet. It is narrowly Democratic; Bush actually carried the district against Gore in 2000, but Kerry won by 5 points in 2004. This district is younger, more well educated, wealthier, and more heavily black than the state at large.
An Obama victory here is not in doubt, but the margin is. If he can break 64.2% here, he will pick up five delegates; otherwise, he'll win four. Obama's 66-34 victory in the neighboring and demographically less favorable VA-05 indicates he can do it, but for now, I'll play it safe: Obama 4, Clinton 3.